Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants released and refined through mid-2026, has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark emphasizing multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. These models post scores in the 48–62% range across leaderboards from Artificial Analysis, BenchLM, and Scale, depending on tool use, “contemplating” modes, and evaluation setup, placing them within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 entries while outperforming prior Llama releases. Trader sentiment reflects optimism about Meta’s competitive positioning and pricing but accounts for remaining gaps to the frontier, variable benchmark conditions, and the potential for additional 2026 releases or optimizations before the December 31 resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$58,511 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
35%
60%+
28%
65%+
21%
70%+
10%
$58,511 Vol.
55%+
$36,531 Vol.
35%
60%+
$12,419 Vol.
28%
65%+
$7,755 Vol.
21%
70%+
$1,806 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants released and refined through mid-2026, has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark emphasizing multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. These models post scores in the 48–62% range across leaderboards from Artificial Analysis, BenchLM, and Scale, depending on tool use, “contemplating” modes, and evaluation setup, placing them within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 entries while outperforming prior Llama releases. Trader sentiment reflects optimism about Meta’s competitive positioning and pricing but accounts for remaining gaps to the frontier, variable benchmark conditions, and the potential for additional 2026 releases or optimizations before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$58,511Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants released and refined through mid-2026, has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark emphasizing multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. These models post scores in the 48–62% range across leaderboards from Artificial Analysis, BenchLM, and Scale, depending on tool use, “contemplating” modes, and evaluation setup, placing them within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 entries while outperforming prior Llama releases. Trader sentiment reflects optimism about Meta’s competitive positioning and pricing but accounts for remaining gaps to the frontier, variable benchmark conditions, and the potential for additional 2026 releases or optimizations before the December 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$58,511Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly the 1.1 and 1.3 variants released and refined through mid-2026, has driven recent gains on Humanity’s Last Exam, a 2,500-question expert-vetted benchmark emphasizing multi-step reasoning across math, sciences, and humanities. These models post scores in the 48–62% range across leaderboards from Artificial Analysis, BenchLM, and Scale, depending on tool use, “contemplating” modes, and evaluation setup, placing them within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 entries while outperforming prior Llama releases. Trader sentiment reflects optimism about Meta’s competitive positioning and pricing but accounts for remaining gaps to the frontier, variable benchmark conditions, and the potential for additional 2026 releases or optimizations before the December 31 resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
52%
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
84%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
81%
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