Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, drives current trader sentiment after posting 48–62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing advanced reasoning across math, sciences, and other domains. These results place Meta models close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 (59–65%) while outperforming earlier Llama 4 releases and several GPT-5 variants in select evaluations with tools or high-reasoning modes. Competitive pressure from rapid frontier gains by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, plus Meta’s history of iterative releases, suggests further scaling or refinements could lift scores before year-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Muse Spark updates or official HLE submissions that clarify Meta’s trajectory on this unsaturated benchmark.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$64,520 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
55%+
17%
60%+
20%
65%+
15%
70%+
8%
$64,520 Vol.
55%+
$40,732 Vol.
17%
60%+
$13,616 Vol.
20%
65%+
$8,286 Vol.
15%
70%+
$1,887 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, drives current trader sentiment after posting 48–62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing advanced reasoning across math, sciences, and other domains. These results place Meta models close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 (59–65%) while outperforming earlier Llama 4 releases and several GPT-5 variants in select evaluations with tools or high-reasoning modes. Competitive pressure from rapid frontier gains by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, plus Meta’s history of iterative releases, suggests further scaling or refinements could lift scores before year-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Muse Spark updates or official HLE submissions that clarify Meta’s trajectory on this unsaturated benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
Volume
$64,520Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, drives current trader sentiment after posting 48–62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing advanced reasoning across math, sciences, and other domains. These results place Meta models close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 (59–65%) while outperforming earlier Llama 4 releases and several GPT-5 variants in select evaluations with tools or high-reasoning modes. Competitive pressure from rapid frontier gains by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, plus Meta’s history of iterative releases, suggests further scaling or refinements could lift scores before year-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Muse Spark updates or official HLE submissions that clarify Meta’s trajectory on this unsaturated benchmark.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$64,520Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Muse Spark series, particularly versions 1.1 and 1.3, drives current trader sentiment after posting 48–62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE), a 2,500-question expert benchmark testing advanced reasoning across math, sciences, and other domains. These results place Meta models close behind Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 (59–65%) while outperforming earlier Llama 4 releases and several GPT-5 variants in select evaluations with tools or high-reasoning modes. Competitive pressure from rapid frontier gains by OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic, plus Meta’s history of iterative releases, suggests further scaling or refinements could lift scores before year-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include any new Muse Spark updates or official HLE submissions that clarify Meta’s trajectory on this unsaturated benchmark.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?
41%
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
77%
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?
93%
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