Current model consensus from European and global ensembles points to Istanbul maximum temperatures of 27–29°C on August 12 under stable late-summer conditions, with moderate northerly flow and scattered cloud cover limiting peak insolation. This aligns with August climatology showing mean daily highs near 28°C at the official station and explains the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, as ensemble spread remains low absent significant warm advection or subsidence. Short-range guidance from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates surface peaks will likely stay at or just below recent observed values, with any upside to 30°C or higher requiring an unforecasted mesoscale event. Traders are thus weighting the 28°C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given normal forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 12?
28°C 48%
29°C 30%
27°C 28%
30°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
10%
27°C
28%
28°C
48%
29°C
30%
30°C
11%
31°C
4%
32°C
7%
33°C or higher
2%
28°C 48%
29°C 30%
27°C 28%
30°C 11%
BARU
BARU
Aug 12, 2026
23°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
24°C
$12 Vol.
1%
25°C
$12 Vol.
6%
26°C
$5 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
28%
28°C
$0 Vol.
48%
29°C
$5 Vol.
30%
30°C
$0 Vol.
11%
31°C
$5 Vol.
4%
32°C
$12 Vol.
7%
33°C or higher
$12 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from European and global ensembles points to Istanbul maximum temperatures of 27–29°C on August 12 under stable late-summer conditions, with moderate northerly flow and scattered cloud cover limiting peak insolation. This aligns with August climatology showing mean daily highs near 28°C at the official station and explains the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, as ensemble spread remains low absent significant warm advection or subsidence. Short-range guidance from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates surface peaks will likely stay at or just below recent observed values, with any upside to 30°C or higher requiring an unforecasted mesoscale event. Traders are thus weighting the 28°C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given normal forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$75Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current model consensus from European and global ensembles points to Istanbul maximum temperatures of 27–29°C on August 12 under stable late-summer conditions, with moderate northerly flow and scattered cloud cover limiting peak insolation. This aligns with August climatology showing mean daily highs near 28°C at the official station and explains the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, as ensemble spread remains low absent significant warm advection or subsidence. Short-range guidance from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates surface peaks will likely stay at or just below recent observed values, with any upside to 30°C or higher requiring an unforecasted mesoscale event. Traders are thus weighting the 28°C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given normal forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$75Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 12, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 10, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from European and global ensembles points to Istanbul maximum temperatures of 27–29°C on August 12 under stable late-summer conditions, with moderate northerly flow and scattered cloud cover limiting peak insolation. This aligns with August climatology showing mean daily highs near 28°C at the official station and explains the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes, as ensemble spread remains low absent significant warm advection or subsidence. Short-range guidance from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service indicates surface peaks will likely stay at or just below recent observed values, with any upside to 30°C or higher requiring an unforecasted mesoscale event. Traders are thus weighting the 28°C outcome most heavily while assigning meaningful probability to adjacent values given normal forecast uncertainty this close to the date.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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