Traders assign the closest probabilities to 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31%) for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum because short-range ensemble models show only subtle spread in peak heating under persistent subtropical high pressure. Limited cloud cover, light southerly flow, and high humidity support daytime warming above the 32–33°C August climatological average, while urban heat-island effects and exact timing of any monsoon moisture intrusions create the narrow forecast range separating these outcomes. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation explain the balanced market-implied odds, with official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration expected to resolve the bracket within the next 48 hours.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 11?
35°C 34%
36°C 31%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 11, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
7%
34°C
18%
35°C
34%
36°C
31%
37°C
13%
38°C
4%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 34%
36°C 31%
34°C 18%
37°C 13%
BARU
BARU
Aug 11, 2026
29°C or below
$313 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$79 Vol.
1%
31°C
$22 Vol.
1%
32°C
$63 Vol.
2%
33°C
$20 Vol.
7%
34°C
$76 Vol.
18%
35°C
$71 Vol.
34%
36°C
$139 Vol.
31%
37°C
$26 Vol.
13%
38°C
$214 Vol.
4%
39°C or higher
$558 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the closest probabilities to 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31%) for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum because short-range ensemble models show only subtle spread in peak heating under persistent subtropical high pressure. Limited cloud cover, light southerly flow, and high humidity support daytime warming above the 32–33°C August climatological average, while urban heat-island effects and exact timing of any monsoon moisture intrusions create the narrow forecast range separating these outcomes. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation explain the balanced market-implied odds, with official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration expected to resolve the bracket within the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$1,579Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the closest probabilities to 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31%) for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum because short-range ensemble models show only subtle spread in peak heating under persistent subtropical high pressure. Limited cloud cover, light southerly flow, and high humidity support daytime warming above the 32–33°C August climatological average, while urban heat-island effects and exact timing of any monsoon moisture intrusions create the narrow forecast range separating these outcomes. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation explain the balanced market-implied odds, with official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration expected to resolve the bracket within the next 48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,579Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 11, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 9, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the closest probabilities to 35°C (33.5%) and 36°C (31%) for Shenzhen’s August 11 maximum because short-range ensemble models show only subtle spread in peak heating under persistent subtropical high pressure. Limited cloud cover, light southerly flow, and high humidity support daytime warming above the 32–33°C August climatological average, while urban heat-island effects and exact timing of any monsoon moisture intrusions create the narrow forecast range separating these outcomes. Minor model differences in boundary-layer mixing and insolation explain the balanced market-implied odds, with official observational data from the China Meteorological Administration expected to resolve the bracket within the next 48 hours.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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