OpenAI engineering lead Tibo Sottiaux’s public announcements of two qualifying resets—one global and one banked—around September 29–30 drove the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for exactly two Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28. These discretionary actions followed the pattern of frequent refills tied to GPT-6 model rollouts, Astra-related access issues, and fixes for background features that rapidly consumed paid plan allowances. Traders view the signals as consistent with OpenAI’s recent cadence of addressing developer feedback on rate limits. While the consensus appears firm, an additional unannounced discretionary reset or differing interpretation of what qualifies under market rules could still shift the outcome before resolution.