**Democratic Senate incumbents face limited primary opposition in the 2026 cycle, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** Four Democratic senators have already retired rather than seek renomination—Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Tina Smith (MN), and Dick Durbin (IL)—reducing the pool of sitting members running. The remaining incumbents, including Jon Ossoff (GA), Cory Booker (NJ), Ben Ray Luján (NM), and John Hickenlooper (CO), have filed for re-election and encountered only token challengers who failed to advance meaningfully on ballots. August primaries in states with open Democratic seats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, produced nominees without incumbent defeats. No Democratic senator has lost renomination to date, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely face serious primary threats absent major scandals or party fractures. Trader pricing reflects this low-risk environment, with scheduled contests through mid-August offering few remaining opportunities for upsets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui0 79%
1 7.3%
2 3.5%
>4 3.1%
$14,032 Vol.
$14,032 Vol.
0
79%
1
14%
2
4%
3
<1%
4
1%
>4
3%
0 79%
1 7.3%
2 3.5%
>4 3.1%
$14,032 Vol.
$14,032 Vol.
0
$8,581 Vol.
79%
1
$1,887 Vol.
14%
2
$1,518 Vol.
4%
3
$720 Vol.
<1%
4
$724 Vol.
1%
>4
$602 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents face limited primary opposition in the 2026 cycle, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** Four Democratic senators have already retired rather than seek renomination—Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Tina Smith (MN), and Dick Durbin (IL)—reducing the pool of sitting members running. The remaining incumbents, including Jon Ossoff (GA), Cory Booker (NJ), Ben Ray Luján (NM), and John Hickenlooper (CO), have filed for re-election and encountered only token challengers who failed to advance meaningfully on ballots.
August primaries in states with open Democratic seats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, produced nominees without incumbent defeats. No Democratic senator has lost renomination to date, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely face serious primary threats absent major scandals or party fractures. Trader pricing reflects this low-risk environment, with scheduled contests through mid-August offering few remaining opportunities for upsets.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$14,032Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Democratic Senate incumbents face limited primary opposition in the 2026 cycle, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** Four Democratic senators have already retired rather than seek renomination—Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Tina Smith (MN), and Dick Durbin (IL)—reducing the pool of sitting members running. The remaining incumbents, including Jon Ossoff (GA), Cory Booker (NJ), Ben Ray Luján (NM), and John Hickenlooper (CO), have filed for re-election and encountered only token challengers who failed to advance meaningfully on ballots.
August primaries in states with open Democratic seats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, produced nominees without incumbent defeats. No Democratic senator has lost renomination to date, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely face serious primary threats absent major scandals or party fractures. Trader pricing reflects this low-risk environment, with scheduled contests through mid-August offering few remaining opportunities for upsets.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$14,032Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Democratic Senate incumbents face limited primary opposition in the 2026 cycle, supporting the market's strong consensus around zero losses.** Four Democratic senators have already retired rather than seek renomination—Gary Peters (MI), Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Tina Smith (MN), and Dick Durbin (IL)—reducing the pool of sitting members running. The remaining incumbents, including Jon Ossoff (GA), Cory Booker (NJ), Ben Ray Luján (NM), and John Hickenlooper (CO), have filed for re-election and encountered only token challengers who failed to advance meaningfully on ballots. August primaries in states with open Democratic seats, such as Michigan and Minnesota, produced nominees without incumbent defeats. No Democratic senator has lost renomination to date, consistent with historical patterns where Senate incumbents rarely face serious primary threats absent major scandals or party fractures. Trader pricing reflects this low-risk environment, with scheduled contests through mid-August offering few remaining opportunities for upsets.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
80%
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
45%
Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
93%
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