Republican House primaries in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats so far, consistent with historical patterns where successful primary challenges remain rare absent major redistricting, scandal, or intra-party revolts. Notable losses include Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Dan Crenshaw in Texas, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, often tied to Trump-endorsed challengers emphasizing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, or January 6 issues. Broader results show three Republicans ousted amid higher overall turnover driven more by retirements than primary upsets, with most GOP incumbents facing limited opposition and advancing easily in safe districts. Trader consensus for 4-6 total losses reflects this baseline rate plus a few additional contests still pending in states with later primary dates. Outcomes above that range would require a wave of unanticipated challenges or stronger anti-incumbent momentum in remaining races, while fewer than four would deviate from the elevated pace already observed this cycle.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4-6 92.9%
7-9 5.3%
10-12 3.3%
>15 3.0%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
≤3
<1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
3%
13-15
3%
>15
3%
4-6 92.9%
7-9 5.3%
10-12 3.3%
>15 3.0%
$76,080 Vol.
$76,080 Vol.
≤3
$38,821 Vol.
<1%
4-6
$19,264 Vol.
93%
7-9
$6,315 Vol.
5%
10-12
$5,051 Vol.
3%
13-15
$3,933 Vol.
3%
>15
$2,696 Vol.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House primaries in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats so far, consistent with historical patterns where successful primary challenges remain rare absent major redistricting, scandal, or intra-party revolts. Notable losses include Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Dan Crenshaw in Texas, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, often tied to Trump-endorsed challengers emphasizing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, or January 6 issues. Broader results show three Republicans ousted amid higher overall turnover driven more by retirements than primary upsets, with most GOP incumbents facing limited opposition and advancing easily in safe districts.
Trader consensus for 4-6 total losses reflects this baseline rate plus a few additional contests still pending in states with later primary dates. Outcomes above that range would require a wave of unanticipated challenges or stronger anti-incumbent momentum in remaining races, while fewer than four would deviate from the elevated pace already observed this cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volume
$76,080Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Republican House primaries in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats so far, consistent with historical patterns where successful primary challenges remain rare absent major redistricting, scandal, or intra-party revolts. Notable losses include Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Dan Crenshaw in Texas, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, often tied to Trump-endorsed challengers emphasizing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, or January 6 issues. Broader results show three Republicans ousted amid higher overall turnover driven more by retirements than primary upsets, with most GOP incumbents facing limited opposition and advancing easily in safe districts.
Trader consensus for 4-6 total losses reflects this baseline rate plus a few additional contests still pending in states with later primary dates. Outcomes above that range would require a wave of unanticipated challenges or stronger anti-incumbent momentum in remaining races, while fewer than four would deviate from the elevated pace already observed this cycle.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volume
$76,080Pasar Dibuka
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican House primaries in 2026 have produced a modest number of incumbent defeats so far, consistent with historical patterns where successful primary challenges remain rare absent major redistricting, scandal, or intra-party revolts. Notable losses include Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Dan Crenshaw in Texas, and Andy Ogles in Tennessee, often tied to Trump-endorsed challengers emphasizing loyalty on spending, foreign policy, or January 6 issues. Broader results show three Republicans ousted amid higher overall turnover driven more by retirements than primary upsets, with most GOP incumbents facing limited opposition and advancing easily in safe districts. Trader consensus for 4-6 total losses reflects this baseline rate plus a few additional contests still pending in states with later primary dates. Outcomes above that range would require a wave of unanticipated challenges or stronger anti-incumbent momentum in remaining races, while fewer than four would deviate from the elevated pace already observed this cycle.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
46%
Will Republican Senate incumbents not win in exactly three nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
81%
Will Democratic Senate incumbents win all their nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
79%
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