Catalina Lauf leads trader consensus at 41% implied probability in the open FL-19 Republican primary to succeed Byron Donalds, who is vacating for the 2026 gubernatorial race, bolstered by her $541,000 first-quarter 2026 fundraising reported April 13 and endorsement from Rep. Anna Paulina Luna in February. Jim Schwartzel follows at 20% with $1.28 million cash-on-hand entering the year from robust outside support, though his radio station faced April 21 accusations of misinformation against a rival. Self-funding business leader Jim Oberweis sits at 11% with nearly $3 million available, while ex-Rep. Madison Cawthorn matches at 11% after gaining February dropout Johnny Fratto's backing in the fragmented field ahead of the August 18 primary.