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DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

icon for Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 64.9%

Reza PahlaviΒ 8%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 4.7%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,657,268 Vol.

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 64.9%

Reza PahlaviΒ 8%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 4.7%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 2.8%

Polymarket

$8,657,268 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,077,014 Vol.

65%

Reza Pahlavi

$208,762 Vol.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$228,215 Vol.

5%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara

$488,164 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$213,768 Vol.

2%

Ahmad Vahidi

$299,316 Vol.

2%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$326,254 Vol.

2%

Hassan Rouhani

$353,230 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$142,570 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$860,892 Vol.

1%

Navid Shomali

$87,163 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$813,099 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$318,646 Vol.

1%

Massoud Rajavi

$75,414 Vol.

1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$90,845 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$448,007 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$93,219 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$290,404 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$179,711 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$52,010 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$100,091 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$83,015 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,445 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$52,716 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,414 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$87,072 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$74,398 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$39,291 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,666 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's leading position in trader pricing reflects his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the early stages of the Iran conflict with the United States and Israel. This appointment established institutional continuity through the clerical body responsible for leadership transitions, despite the hereditary implications that traditionally conflict with revolutionary principles. Ongoing regional tensions, including statements on Strait of Hormuz management, and reports of Mojtaba's limited public appearances due to prior injuries have introduced some uncertainty about his long-term stability through the end of 2026. Other listed contenders, including opposition figures and reformist clerics, register lower probabilities amid the current consolidation of power within the existing theocratic framework.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,657,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei's leading position in trader pricing reflects his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following the assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, during the early stages of the Iran conflict with the United States and Israel. This appointment established institutional continuity through the clerical body responsible for leadership transitions, despite the hereditary implications that traditionally conflict with revolutionary principles. Ongoing regional tensions, including statements on Strait of Hormuz management, and reports of Mojtaba's limited public appearances due to prior injuries have introduced some uncertainty about his long-term stability through the end of 2026. Other listed contenders, including opposition figures and reformist clerics, register lower probabilities amid the current consolidation of power within the existing theocratic framework.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,657,268
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 32 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 65%, diikuti oleh "Reza Pahlavi" di 8%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 65Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 65% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $8.7 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?," jelajahi 32 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 65%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 65% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Reza Pahlavi" di 8%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.