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DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

icon for Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 83.7%

Reza PahlaviΒ 3.7%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 3.3%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 1.4%

Polymarket

$16,956,135 Vol.

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 83.7%

Reza PahlaviΒ 3.7%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 3.3%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 1.4%

Polymarket

$16,956,135 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$2,889,704 Vol.

84%

Reza Pahlavi

$383,028 Vol.

4%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$663,813 Vol.

3%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara

$963,786 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$2,009,999 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$762,326 Vol.

<1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$768,164 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$602,548 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$368,881 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$479,861 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,212,315 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$259,515 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$678,273 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$343,105 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$96,029 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$148,503 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$109,538 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$179,030 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$177,197 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$152,183 Vol.

<1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$543,131 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$709,060 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$492,126 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$178,997 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$294,974 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$187,750 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$208,014 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$370,742 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$230,836 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$255,857 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$16,956,135
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$16,956,135
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 32 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 84%, diikuti oleh "Reza Pahlavi" di 4%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 84Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $17 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Feb 28, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?," jelajahi 32 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 84%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 84% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Reza Pahlavi" di 4%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.