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DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

icon for Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?
DuniaΒ·Timur Tengah

Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 63.8%

Reza PahlaviΒ 8%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 3.9%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,378 Vol.

Mojtaba KhameneiΒ 63.8%

Reza PahlaviΒ 8%

Mohammad-Bagher GhalibafΒ 3.9%

Tidak Ada Kepala NegaraΒ 3.2%

Polymarket

$8,051,378 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$1,914,882 Vol.

64%

Reza Pahlavi

$202,799 Vol.

8%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$224,154 Vol.

4%

Tidak Ada Kepala Negara

$459,324 Vol.

3%

Abbas Araghchi

$185,334 Vol.

3%

Ahmad Vahidi

$271,083 Vol.

3%

Hassan Rouhani

$324,648 Vol.

2%

Alireza Arafi

$833,426 Vol.

1%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$110,580 Vol.

1%

Maryam Rajavi

$291,446 Vol.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$785,882 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$299,020 Vol.

1%

Mohammad Khatami

$420,949 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$195,597 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$48,234 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$62,223 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$285,850 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$175,162 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$49,640 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$61,355 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$85,198 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$74,836 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$64,309 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$87,010 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$47,973 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$33,412 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$80,314 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$64,972 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$31,241 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$43,664 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediariesβ€”yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,051,378
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Trader consensus favors Mojtaba Khamenei at 63.8% as Iran's Supreme Leader through end-2026, reflecting his March 8 election by the Assembly of Experts following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in a US-Israeli strike on February 28 amid escalating conflict. This succession ensured regime continuity despite wartime disruptions to deliberations. Recent health rumors intensified after February airstrikes reportedly injured him, with officials insisting on May 7 that President Masoud Pezeshkian met him and he remains in "perfect health," issuing military directives via intermediariesβ€”yet persistent speculation of severe injuries or incapacitation has capped his odds below certainty. Reza Pahlavi's 7.5% share captures exiled opposition hopes for regime collapse, while low probabilities for others like Ghalibaf underscore entrenched clerical control amid ongoing hostilities.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$8,051,378
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, β€œde facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to β€œNo Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 32 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 64%, diikuti oleh "Reza Pahlavi" di 8%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 64Β’ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" telah menghasilkan $8.1 million dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Mar 1, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?," jelajahi 32 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" adalah "Mojtaba Khamenei" di 64%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 64% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Reza Pahlavi" di 8%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pemimpin Iran akhir 2026?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang β€” termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.