Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains in a tight contest near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote. Recent polls after the September 8 candidate list deadline show the party receiving between roughly 2.8% and 3%, fluctuating with small-sample volatility and competition for right-wing voters from established lists including Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run, after rejecting merger talks, has produced inconsistent results across surveys, with some placing it below the threshold and others projecting four seats. This polling uncertainty and the party's reliance on late-deciding voters sustain the close distribution of implied probabilities across the sub-5% ranges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui<2.5% 46%
4-5% 44%
3.25-4% 43%
2.5-3.25% 43%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
46%
2.5-3.25%
43%
3.25-4%
43%
4-5%
44%
5%+
26%
<2.5% 46%
4-5% 44%
3.25-4% 43%
2.5-3.25% 43%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<2.5%
$0 Vol.
46%
2.5-3.25%
$0 Vol.
43%
3.25-4%
$0 Vol.
43%
4-5%
$0 Vol.
44%
5%+
$0 Vol.
26%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains in a tight contest near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote. Recent polls after the September 8 candidate list deadline show the party receiving between roughly 2.8% and 3%, fluctuating with small-sample volatility and competition for right-wing voters from established lists including Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run, after rejecting merger talks, has produced inconsistent results across surveys, with some placing it below the threshold and others projecting four seats. This polling uncertainty and the party's reliance on late-deciding voters sustain the close distribution of implied probabilities across the sub-5% ranges.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains in a tight contest near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote. Recent polls after the September 8 candidate list deadline show the party receiving between roughly 2.8% and 3%, fluctuating with small-sample volatility and competition for right-wing voters from established lists including Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run, after rejecting merger talks, has produced inconsistent results across surveys, with some placing it below the threshold and others projecting four seats. This polling uncertainty and the party's reliance on late-deciding voters sustain the close distribution of implied probabilities across the sub-5% ranges.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$0Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched in late August 2026 by former IDF Brigadier General Ofer Winter, remains in a tight contest near Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 vote. Recent polls after the September 8 candidate list deadline show the party receiving between roughly 2.8% and 3%, fluctuating with small-sample volatility and competition for right-wing voters from established lists including Religious Zionism-Zehut and Otzma Yehudit. Its independent run, after rejecting merger talks, has produced inconsistent results across surveys, with some placing it below the threshold and others projecting four seats. This polling uncertainty and the party's reliance on late-deciding voters sustain the close distribution of implied probabilities across the sub-5% ranges.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan