Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Ra'am receiving between four and six seats, consistent with a vote share near the 4–5.5% range that dominates current market pricing. The party's independent run, bolstered by former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in a high list position and a surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, introduces uncertainty around Arab-sector turnout and crossover appeal. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and Otzma Yehudit add procedural risk, while competition from the reunited Joint List and broader bloc dynamics influence how Arab votes distribute. These factors sustain tight pricing between the two leading brackets, with separation likely hinging on final-week turnout data and any late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui4-4.75% 33%
<3.25% 19%
4.75-5.5% 18%
3.25-4% 16%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
16%
3.25-4%
16%
4-4.75%
40%
4.75-5.5%
34%
5.5%+
5%
4-4.75% 33%
<3.25% 19%
4.75-5.5% 18%
3.25-4% 16%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
<3.25%
$294 Vol.
16%
3.25-4%
$278 Vol.
16%
4-4.75%
$1,053 Vol.
40%
4.75-5.5%
$192 Vol.
34%
5.5%+
$175 Vol.
5%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Ra'am receiving between four and six seats, consistent with a vote share near the 4–5.5% range that dominates current market pricing. The party's independent run, bolstered by former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in a high list position and a surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, introduces uncertainty around Arab-sector turnout and crossover appeal. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and Otzma Yehudit add procedural risk, while competition from the reunited Joint List and broader bloc dynamics influence how Arab votes distribute. These factors sustain tight pricing between the two leading brackets, with separation likely hinging on final-week turnout data and any late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ET
Volume
$1,993Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Ra'am receiving between four and six seats, consistent with a vote share near the 4–5.5% range that dominates current market pricing. The party's independent run, bolstered by former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in a high list position and a surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, introduces uncertainty around Arab-sector turnout and crossover appeal. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and Otzma Yehudit add procedural risk, while competition from the reunited Joint List and broader bloc dynamics influence how Arab votes distribute. These factors sustain tight pricing between the two leading brackets, with separation likely hinging on final-week turnout data and any late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by United Arab List (Ra'am) party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by United Arab List (Ra'am)'s party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether United Arab List (Ra'am) passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If United Arab List (Ra'am) contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If United Arab List (Ra'am) merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volume
$1,993Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 27, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 8, 2026, 4:19 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.bechirot.gov.il/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for the October 2026 Knesset election shows Ra'am receiving between four and six seats, consistent with a vote share near the 4–5.5% range that dominates current market pricing. The party's independent run, bolstered by former Yesh Atid MK Yoav Segalovitz in a high list position and a surplus-vote agreement with the Joint List, introduces uncertainty around Arab-sector turnout and crossover appeal. Disqualification petitions filed by Likud and Otzma Yehudit add procedural risk, while competition from the reunited Joint List and broader bloc dynamics influence how Arab votes distribute. These factors sustain tight pricing between the two leading brackets, with separation likely hinging on final-week turnout data and any late shifts in Arab voter consolidation.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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