Internal party dynamics within South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party center on Jung Chung-rae’s leadership tenure, which began after his election as chair in August 2025. The next national convention scheduled for August 2026 serves as the primary decision point for renewal of his mandate. Reports of internal resistance from allies of President Lee Jae-myung, combined with recurring public missteps that have diverted attention during a period of strong polling ahead of June local elections, have shaped trader assessments. These developments have produced an implied probability of 80.5 percent that Jung will no longer hold the leadership role by the end of 2026, reflecting the convention’s potential to alter the party’s direction amid ongoing coalition and policy pressures.