Trader consensus clusters tightly around 13–15°C for Madrid’s September 18 minimum because current high-pressure conditions and clear skies favor efficient nocturnal radiative cooling over the city’s 650 m plateau. Light northeast winds (3–6 km/h) limit turbulent mixing while dew points near 7–10°C cap further drops, producing forecast lows of 15–17°C from official runs. Recent observations show nightly minima easing from the mid-September heatwave peak (14–19°C range), consistent with seasonal transition and no incoming fronts. Model spread centers on whether the overnight low settles at 14°C or edges to 13°C or 15°C depending on exact wind and cloud timing before dawn, keeping market-implied odds nearly even across those thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiLowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 18?
12°C or below 100%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
100%
13°C
-
14°C
-
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
12°C or below 100%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
17°C <1%
BARU
BARU
Sep 18, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
13°C
$61 Vol.
-
14°C
$19 Vol.
-
15°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$146 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$82 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$46 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$41 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 13–15°C for Madrid’s September 18 minimum because current high-pressure conditions and clear skies favor efficient nocturnal radiative cooling over the city’s 650 m plateau. Light northeast winds (3–6 km/h) limit turbulent mixing while dew points near 7–10°C cap further drops, producing forecast lows of 15–17°C from official runs. Recent observations show nightly minima easing from the mid-September heatwave peak (14–19°C range), consistent with seasonal transition and no incoming fronts. Model spread centers on whether the overnight low settles at 14°C or edges to 13°C or 15°C depending on exact wind and cloud timing before dawn, keeping market-implied odds nearly even across those thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$528Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 13–15°C for Madrid’s September 18 minimum because current high-pressure conditions and clear skies favor efficient nocturnal radiative cooling over the city’s 650 m plateau. Light northeast winds (3–6 km/h) limit turbulent mixing while dew points near 7–10°C cap further drops, producing forecast lows of 15–17°C from official runs. Recent observations show nightly minima easing from the mid-September heatwave peak (14–19°C range), consistent with seasonal transition and no incoming fronts. Model spread centers on whether the overnight low settles at 14°C or edges to 13°C or 15°C depending on exact wind and cloud timing before dawn, keeping market-implied odds nearly even across those thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$528Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 18, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETSumber Resolusi
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around 13–15°C for Madrid’s September 18 minimum because current high-pressure conditions and clear skies favor efficient nocturnal radiative cooling over the city’s 650 m plateau. Light northeast winds (3–6 km/h) limit turbulent mixing while dew points near 7–10°C cap further drops, producing forecast lows of 15–17°C from official runs. Recent observations show nightly minima easing from the mid-September heatwave peak (14–19°C range), consistent with seasonal transition and no incoming fronts. Model spread centers on whether the overnight low settles at 14°C or edges to 13°C or 15°C depending on exact wind and cloud timing before dawn, keeping market-implied odds nearly even across those thresholds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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