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icon for Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Pemilihan Umum·Makerfield

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

icon for Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?
Pemilihan Umum·Makerfield

Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?

35% peluang
Polymarket

$17,460 Vol.

35% peluang
Polymarket

$17,460 Vol.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent polls for the 18 June Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, contesting its first parliamentary seat with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, at levels around 7% in a Survation survey and up to 13% in a leaked constituency poll, amid competition from Reform UK and Labour's Andy Burnham. National polling for the party founded by Rupert Lowe has hovered between 4% and 9% since its February 2026 launch, reflecting limited name recognition and a split in right-leaning support. Traders appear to weigh these mixed results, the party's short track record in local contests, and the challenges new entrants face in translating online engagement into broad vote shares against established options. The implied probability favors Restore Britain finishing below 10%, consistent with caution ahead of polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$17,460
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).Recent polls for the 18 June Makerfield by-election show Restore Britain, contesting its first parliamentary seat with candidate Rebecca Shepherd, at levels around 7% in a Survation survey and up to 13% in a leaked constituency poll, amid competition from Reform UK and Labour's Andy Burnham. National polling for the party founded by Rupert Lowe has hovered between 4% and 9% since its February 2026 launch, reflecting limited name recognition and a split in right-leaning support. Traders appear to weigh these mixed results, the party's short track record in local contests, and the challenges new entrants face in translating online engagement into broad vote shares against established options. The implied probability favors Restore Britain finishing below 10%, consistent with caution ahead of polling day.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).
Volume
$17,460
Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 18, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jun 8, 2026, 8:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is currently scheduled to be held on June 18, 2026, following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Restore Britain candidate, Rebecca Shepherd, receives at least the listed percentage of the popular vote in the 2026 Makerfield by-election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The percentage of the popular vote will be calculated as number of valid votes received by Rebecca Shepherd divided by the number of total valid votes in the specified election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 35% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 35¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 35% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?" telah menghasilkan $17.5K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Jun 9, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?" adalah 35% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 35% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.