Recent polling averages place National and Labour within a few points of each other in the low-to-mid 30s or below, with both major parties drawing support from smaller parties including ACT, New Zealand First, Greens, and The Opportunities Party. This fragmentation, combined with mixed results across surveys in August and early September 2026, has sustained a narrow popular-vote contest ahead of the 7 November election. Campaign focus on immigration policy, economic measures, and coalition dynamics continues to shift minor-party backing without producing a decisive lead for either National or Labour. Late-campaign events, voter turnout shifts, or further movement in minor-party thresholds could widen the final margin between the two largest parties.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Labour 0-5% 31%
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 10-15% 17%
Labour 5-10% 14%
$19,836 Vol.
$19,836 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
17%
Labour 5-10%
14%
Labour 0-5%
31%
National 0-5%
29%
National 5-10%
5%
National 10%+
1%
Another Party Wins
1%
Labour 0-5% 31%
National 0-5% 29%
Labour 10-15% 17%
Labour 5-10% 14%
$19,836 Vol.
$19,836 Vol.
Nov 6, 2026
Labour 15%+
$725 Vol.
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,665 Vol.
17%
Labour 5-10%
$770 Vol.
14%
Labour 0-5%
$1,473 Vol.
31%
National 0-5%
$2,585 Vol.
29%
National 5-10%
$938 Vol.
5%
National 10%+
$7,274 Vol.
1%
Another Party Wins
$405 Vol.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place National and Labour within a few points of each other in the low-to-mid 30s or below, with both major parties drawing support from smaller parties including ACT, New Zealand First, Greens, and The Opportunities Party. This fragmentation, combined with mixed results across surveys in August and early September 2026, has sustained a narrow popular-vote contest ahead of the 7 November election. Campaign focus on immigration policy, economic measures, and coalition dynamics continues to shift minor-party backing without producing a decisive lead for either National or Labour. Late-campaign events, voter turnout shifts, or further movement in minor-party thresholds could widen the final margin between the two largest parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Pasar Dibuka: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$19,836Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place National and Labour within a few points of each other in the low-to-mid 30s or below, with both major parties drawing support from smaller parties including ACT, New Zealand First, Greens, and The Opportunities Party. This fragmentation, combined with mixed results across surveys in August and early September 2026, has sustained a narrow popular-vote contest ahead of the 7 November election. Campaign focus on immigration policy, economic measures, and coalition dynamics continues to shift minor-party backing without producing a decisive lead for either National or Labour. Late-campaign events, voter turnout shifts, or further movement in minor-party thresholds could widen the final margin between the two largest parties.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volume
$19,836Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 7, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place National and Labour within a few points of each other in the low-to-mid 30s or below, with both major parties drawing support from smaller parties including ACT, New Zealand First, Greens, and The Opportunities Party. This fragmentation, combined with mixed results across surveys in August and early September 2026, has sustained a narrow popular-vote contest ahead of the 7 November election. Campaign focus on immigration policy, economic measures, and coalition dynamics continues to shift minor-party backing without producing a decisive lead for either National or Labour. Late-campaign events, voter turnout shifts, or further movement in minor-party thresholds could widen the final margin between the two largest parties.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiTerkait
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
56%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
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