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Geopolitik·Iran

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

icon for Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?
Geopolitik·Iran

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

May 31

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Dec 31

May 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

2% peluang
Polymarket

$636,344 Vol.

2% peluang
Polymarket

$636,344 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Hegseth remains firmly entrenched as Secretary of Defense, with traders' near-unanimous 97.7% consensus on "No" reflecting his ongoing tenure over a year after Senate confirmation in January 2025 via Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote. Recent testimonies before House and Senate Appropriations committees on May 12, 2026—addressing the Iran ceasefire and fiscal 2027 defense budget—underscore his active leadership amid Pentagon personnel changes he initiated, including the April dismissal of Navy Secretary John Phelan. No verified reports of resignation, firing, or health issues have emerged in the past 30 days, bolstering stability. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, major military setbacks, or a presidential cabinet reshuffle before May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$636,344
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Pete Hegseth remains firmly entrenched as Secretary of Defense, with traders' near-unanimous 97.7% consensus on "No" reflecting his ongoing tenure over a year after Senate confirmation in January 2025 via Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote. Recent testimonies before House and Senate Appropriations committees on May 12, 2026—addressing the Iran ceasefire and fiscal 2027 defense budget—underscore his active leadership amid Pentagon personnel changes he initiated, including the April dismissal of Navy Secretary John Phelan. No verified reports of resignation, firing, or health issues have emerged in the past 30 days, bolstering stability. Realistic shifts could stem from late-breaking scandals, major military setbacks, or a presidential cabinet reshuffle before May 31.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$636,344
Tanggal Berakhir
May 31, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Apr 27, 2026, 5:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham "Ya" atau "Tidak" berdasarkan apakah mereka yakin event ini akan terjadi. Probabilitas crowd-sourced saat ini adalah 2% untuk "Yes." Misalnya, jika "Ya" dihargai 2¢, pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 2% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

Per hari ini, "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?" telah menghasilkan $636.3K dalam total volume trading sejak pasar diluncurkan pada Apr 27, 2026. Tingkat aktivitas trading ini mencerminkan keterlibatan kuat dari komunitas Polymarket dan membantu memastikan bahwa peluang saat ini diinformasikan oleh kumpulan besar peserta pasar. Kamu bisa melacak pergerakan harga langsung dan trading di hasil apa pun langsung di halaman ini.

Untuk trading di "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?," cukup pilih apakah kamu yakin jawabannya "Ya" atau "Tidak." Setiap sisi memiliki harga saat ini yang mencerminkan probabilitas tersirat pasar. Masukkan jumlah kamu dan klik "Trade." Jika kamu membeli saham "Ya" dan hasilnya diselesaikan sebagai "Ya," setiap saham membayar $1. Jika diselesaikan sebagai "Tidak," saham "Ya" kamu bernilai $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Probabilitas saat ini untuk "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?" adalah 2% untuk "Yes." Ini berarti keramaian Polymarket saat ini percaya ada peluang 2% bahwa event ini akan terjadi. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time berdasarkan trade aktual, memberikan sinyal yang terus diperbarui tentang apa yang diharapkan pasar.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.