Traders assign the highest implied probability to below-average September precipitation in Hong Kong, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone tracks and monsoon trough strength during the peak typhoon season. Historical normals from the Hong Kong Observatory place mean September rainfall near 321 mm, driven primarily by rainbands from systems traversing the South China Sea and western North Pacific. Early September 2026 forecasts indicate scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms from a nearby low-pressure area, yet steering patterns and subtropical ridge positioning could limit further impacts, favoring totals under 300 mm. Key variables include cyclone frequency and intensity, which can add 100+ mm in days, versus suppressed convection under stronger high pressure; model consensus on landfall windows and MJO phase will refine probabilities as the month progresses.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiPrecipitation in Hong Kong in September?
Precipitation in Hong Kong in September?
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 12%
300-325mm 10%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
32%
275-300mm
15%
300-325mm
10%
325-350mm
9%
350-375mm
7%
375-400mm
7%
400-450mm
8%
450-500mm
12%
500-550mm
10%
550mm+
5%
<275mm 32%
275-300mm 15%
450-500mm 12%
300-325mm 10%
BARU
BARU
Sep 30, 2026
<275mm
$805 Vol.
32%
275-300mm
$128 Vol.
15%
300-325mm
$128 Vol.
10%
325-350mm
$128 Vol.
9%
350-375mm
$125 Vol.
7%
375-400mm
$125 Vol.
7%
400-450mm
$150 Vol.
8%
450-500mm
$125 Vol.
12%
500-550mm
$128 Vol.
10%
550mm+
$150 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probability to below-average September precipitation in Hong Kong, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone tracks and monsoon trough strength during the peak typhoon season. Historical normals from the Hong Kong Observatory place mean September rainfall near 321 mm, driven primarily by rainbands from systems traversing the South China Sea and western North Pacific. Early September 2026 forecasts indicate scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms from a nearby low-pressure area, yet steering patterns and subtropical ridge positioning could limit further impacts, favoring totals under 300 mm. Key variables include cyclone frequency and intensity, which can add 100+ mm in days, versus suppressed convection under stronger high pressure; model consensus on landfall windows and MJO phase will refine probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ET
Volume
$1,990Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders assign the highest implied probability to below-average September precipitation in Hong Kong, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone tracks and monsoon trough strength during the peak typhoon season. Historical normals from the Hong Kong Observatory place mean September rainfall near 321 mm, driven primarily by rainbands from systems traversing the South China Sea and western North Pacific. Early September 2026 forecasts indicate scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms from a nearby low-pressure area, yet steering patterns and subtropical ridge positioning could limit further impacts, favoring totals under 300 mm. Key variables include cyclone frequency and intensity, which can add 100+ mm in days, versus suppressed convection under stronger high pressure; model consensus on landfall windows and MJO phase will refine probabilities as the month progresses.
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm in Hong Kong between September 1 and September 30, 2026, according to the Hong Kong Observatory.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Total Rainfall (mm)" figure for all days in September 2026 under the "Daily Extract" at the https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm link once figures are finalized for the specified range.
If the relevant data is not available by December 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$1,990Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 31, 2026, 9:41 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to below-average September precipitation in Hong Kong, reflecting uncertainty in tropical cyclone tracks and monsoon trough strength during the peak typhoon season. Historical normals from the Hong Kong Observatory place mean September rainfall near 321 mm, driven primarily by rainbands from systems traversing the South China Sea and western North Pacific. Early September 2026 forecasts indicate scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms from a nearby low-pressure area, yet steering patterns and subtropical ridge positioning could limit further impacts, favoring totals under 300 mm. Key variables include cyclone frequency and intensity, which can add 100+ mm in days, versus suppressed convection under stronger high pressure; model consensus on landfall windows and MJO phase will refine probabilities as the month progresses.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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