Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a tightly contested field, with multiple options clustered near 50% implied probability and Google leading named labs at 42.5%. This positioning stems from rapid capability gains across frontier labs, where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on benchmarks or user adoption since summer releases. Meta's open-weight strategy and Anthropic's enterprise focus create swing factors that could elevate either into the top tier, while Alibaba and Moonshot gain traction through regional scaling and cost-efficient training. OpenAI's low 7.5% odds reflect trader consensus that its lead keeps it first, leaving the second spot fluid. Key upcoming catalysts include new model drops and developer ecosystem shifts that could break the deadlock before November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 18%
Alibaba 15.9%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
43%
Meta
25%
Anthropic
18%
Alibaba
10%
Moonshot
8%
OpenAI
8%
SpaceXAI
4%
Baidu
3%
Z.ai
3%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
1%
ByteDance
1%
Thinky
1%
Meituan
1%
StepFun
1%
Nvidia
1%
MiniMax
1%
Mistral
1%
Microsoft
1%
Tencent
1%
Amazon
<1%
Google 43%
Meta 25%
Anthropic 18%
Alibaba 15.9%
BARU
BARU
Nov 30, 2026
$2,283 Vol.
43%
Meta
$916 Vol.
25%
Anthropic
$636 Vol.
18%
Alibaba
$200 Vol.
10%
Moonshot
$286 Vol.
8%
OpenAI
$192 Vol.
8%
SpaceXAI
$187 Vol.
4%
Baidu
$187 Vol.
3%
Z.ai
$187 Vol.
3%
Xiaomi
$187 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$181 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$197 Vol.
1%
Thinky
$187 Vol.
1%
Meituan
$187 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$181 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$187 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$187 Vol.
1%
Mistral
$181 Vol.
1%
Microsoft
$181 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$196 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$191 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a tightly contested field, with multiple options clustered near 50% implied probability and Google leading named labs at 42.5%. This positioning stems from rapid capability gains across frontier labs, where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on benchmarks or user adoption since summer releases. Meta's open-weight strategy and Anthropic's enterprise focus create swing factors that could elevate either into the top tier, while Alibaba and Moonshot gain traction through regional scaling and cost-efficient training. OpenAI's low 7.5% odds reflect trader consensus that its lead keeps it first, leaving the second spot fluid. Key upcoming catalysts include new model drops and developer ecosystem shifts that could break the deadlock before November.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volume
$7,322Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a tightly contested field, with multiple options clustered near 50% implied probability and Google leading named labs at 42.5%. This positioning stems from rapid capability gains across frontier labs, where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on benchmarks or user adoption since summer releases. Meta's open-weight strategy and Anthropic's enterprise focus create swing factors that could elevate either into the top tier, while Alibaba and Moonshot gain traction through regional scaling and cost-efficient training. OpenAI's low 7.5% odds reflect trader consensus that its lead keeps it first, leaving the second spot fluid. Key upcoming catalysts include new model drops and developer ecosystem shifts that could break the deadlock before November.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,322Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 1, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on the second-best AI lab by end of November shows a tightly contested field, with multiple options clustered near 50% implied probability and Google leading named labs at 42.5%. This positioning stems from rapid capability gains across frontier labs, where no single player has pulled decisively ahead on benchmarks or user adoption since summer releases. Meta's open-weight strategy and Anthropic's enterprise focus create swing factors that could elevate either into the top tier, while Alibaba and Moonshot gain traction through regional scaling and cost-efficient training. OpenAI's low 7.5% odds reflect trader consensus that its lead keeps it first, leaving the second spot fluid. Key upcoming catalysts include new model drops and developer ecosystem shifts that could break the deadlock before November.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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