National polling averages heading into Spain’s November 29 general election show the PP leading PSOE by roughly five points nationally, a margin that translates into an eight-to-ten-point advantage in Albacete province under standard territorial projections. Local models using those national figures place the PP first in 88 percent of simulations for the four-seat constituency, with projected vote shares near 37–39 percent versus 28 percent for PSOE and 23–25 percent for Vox. Recent candidate lists finalized in late October have not altered these patterns, and no major provincial events have shifted the relative standings in the final month. Traders’ 85.5 percent price on PP therefore tracks the consistent survey evidence and the D’Hondt mechanics that reward the leading party in this mid-sized district.