Recent polling averages position PSOE vote share around 27%, with most surveys from late October through early November 2026 showing the party between 25% and 29% amid a PP lead of 3–6 points. The snap election called for November 29 has centered the campaign on housing affordability, wages, and the November 11 general strike, while the Urda train crash and subsequent transport minister resignation weighed on government support. Left-wing fragmentation, with Frente Amplio drawing votes away from PSOE in several regions, contributes to the compressed range. Trader consensus around the 26–28% bracket reflects this polling stability and limited late momentum shifts, though final results could vary with turnout among core socialist and regional voters.