PP leads the Valladolid constituency market at 87.5% implied probability, reflecting its established strength in Castilla y León and consistent national polling advantage ahead of the November 29 snap election. Recent surveys show PP at approximately 31-32% nationally, ahead of PSOE at 26% and Vox at 18-19%, with seat projections allocating two of Valladolid’s five seats to PP. Trader consensus incorporates PP’s regional base, left-wing fragmentation between the Broad Front and Podemos, and ongoing PP-Vox coordination talks on Senate lists. PSOE, Broad Front, Vox, and smaller parties trade at single-digit or flat levels, underscoring limited expectations for shifts in this district before voting.