**Traders assign an 82.5% probability to no Turkish constitutional referendum being announced in 2026 because recent developments show ongoing internal AKP drafting and discussion without any formal parliamentary vote, timeline, or presidential call for a public vote this year.** Presidential legal advisor Mehmet Uçum stated in late August 2026 that any new charter—even one passing with 400+ votes—should go to referendum but is unlikely to be completed in the current (28th) legislative period, pointing instead to the next parliament. AKP proposals floated in August focus on modest adjustments such as shifting certain presidential powers to the cabinet and expanding parliamentary oversight, rather than a full overhaul requiring immediate referendum action. Earlier comments from Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş in June envisioned possible progress in 2026–2027, yet no concrete steps toward the 360-vote threshold for a referendum (or 400 votes to bypass one) have materialized. Attention has instead centered on Article 116 mechanisms for early elections to address term limits and on the August passage of PKK-related amnesty legislation, which secured broad but non-constitutional support. Opposition fragmentation and the ruling bloc’s seat shortfall further reduce near-term prospects for triggering a 2026 vote.