The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating that the administration would not extend the agreement in its current form. This decision, issued under the second Trump administration amid ongoing bilateral talks focused on autos, steel, aluminum, migration, and counternarcotics, triggered the shift to annual reviews while leaving the pact in force through 2036. Mexico and Canada supported immediate extension, but U.S. demands for revisions and leverage via tariffs have slowed progress, aligning trader consensus on the low likelihood of a 2026 extension.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui21% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
21% peluang
BARU
BARU
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating that the administration would not extend the agreement in its current form. This decision, issued under the second Trump administration amid ongoing bilateral talks focused on autos, steel, aluminum, migration, and counternarcotics, triggered the shift to annual reviews while leaving the pact in force through 2036. Mexico and Canada supported immediate extension, but U.S. demands for revisions and leverage via tariffs have slowed progress, aligning trader consensus on the low likelihood of a 2026 extension.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,924Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating that the administration would not extend the agreement in its current form. This decision, issued under the second Trump administration amid ongoing bilateral talks focused on autos, steel, aluminum, migration, and counternarcotics, triggered the shift to annual reviews while leaving the pact in force through 2036. Mexico and Canada supported immediate extension, but U.S. demands for revisions and leverage via tariffs have slowed progress, aligning trader consensus on the low likelihood of a 2026 extension.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is formally extended by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying extension requires all three parties to formally extend the term of the agreement. This may occur through written confirmation of their wish to extend the term for a further period pursuant to USMCA Article 34.7, or through other formal means that clearly and definitively extend the term, such as a unanimous amendment of the agreement. An extension qualifies whether or not it also includes negotiated modifications to the original agreement.
The following will not qualify: announcements unaccompanied by a formal extension; extension of individual provisions that does not extend the agreement's term itself; commitments to extend by fewer than all three parties; and replacement of the USMCA with a separate or successor agreement, as opposed to continuation of the existing agreement.
The primary resolution source is official information from the United States, Canada, and Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,924Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 1, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States declined to renew the USMCA for an additional 16-year term during the mandatory July 1, 2026, joint review under Article 34.7, with USTR Ambassador Jamieson Greer stating that the administration would not extend the agreement in its current form. This decision, issued under the second Trump administration amid ongoing bilateral talks focused on autos, steel, aluminum, migration, and counternarcotics, triggered the shift to annual reviews while leaving the pact in force through 2036. Mexico and Canada supported immediate extension, but U.S. demands for revisions and leverage via tariffs have slowed progress, aligning trader consensus on the low likelihood of a 2026 extension.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan