Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic at 96.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have posted leading results on capability benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from iterative improvements in model architecture, training efficiency, and alignment techniques that have outpaced rivals in independent testing. OpenAI and Google trail at under 3% amid longer development cycles and more measured update schedules. Potential late-month announcements, new benchmark disclosures, or competitive model drops from other labs remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 96.2%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,793,794 Vol.
$1,793,794 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
96%
OpenAI
3%
1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Bytedance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 96.2%
OpenAI 2.9%
Google <1%
Meta <1%
$1,793,794 Vol.
$1,793,794 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
Anthropic
$365,866 Vol.
96%
OpenAI
$153,268 Vol.
3%
$139,129 Vol.
1%
Meta
$146,190 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$137,958 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$147,801 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$151,100 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$222,717 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$108,007 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$15,032 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$11,009 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$9,778 Vol.
<1%
Bytedance
$103,190 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$11,465 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$14,084 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$28,168 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$4,351 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$3,803 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$4,363 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$4,993 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$11,524 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic at 96.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have posted leading results on capability benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from iterative improvements in model architecture, training efficiency, and alignment techniques that have outpaced rivals in independent testing. OpenAI and Google trail at under 3% amid longer development cycles and more measured update schedules. Potential late-month announcements, new benchmark disclosures, or competitive model drops from other labs remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,793,794Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic at 96.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have posted leading results on capability benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from iterative improvements in model architecture, training efficiency, and alignment techniques that have outpaced rivals in independent testing. OpenAI and Google trail at under 3% amid longer development cycles and more measured update schedules. Potential late-month announcements, new benchmark disclosures, or competitive model drops from other labs remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,793,794Tanggal Berakhir
Aug 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jul 16, 2026, 11:09 PM ETSumber Resolusi
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus has coalesced around Anthropic at 96.3% implied probability for the best AI model by end of August, reflecting its recent large language model releases that have posted leading results on capability benchmarks and safety evaluations. This edge stems from iterative improvements in model architecture, training efficiency, and alignment techniques that have outpaced rivals in independent testing. OpenAI and Google trail at under 3% amid longer development cycles and more measured update schedules. Potential late-month announcements, new benchmark disclosures, or competitive model drops from other labs remain the main variables that could still alter the outcome before resolution.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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