Multiple AI labs remain tightly clustered near 50% implied probability for third place on TextArena math evaluations by end of October, underscoring intense competition in reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba, Google, and OpenAI lead the field at 29.5%, 21.5%, and 15.5% respectively, driven by recent releases such as Qwen3 variants, GLM-5.1, and GPT-5.6-Sol that demonstrate strong gains on math and game-based reasoning tasks like probabilistic poker environments. Chinese labs including Moonshot and Z.ai benefit from rapid iteration on large language models, while Anthropic's Claude series maintains an edge in verified benchmarks. Upcoming developer updates, new model drops, and leaderboard refreshes through September could shift trader consensus as capabilities in symbolic math and self-play training continue to converge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Alibaba 30%
Google 22%
OpenAI 16%
Moonshot 11%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
30%
22%
OpenAI
16%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
6%
Meituan
6%
Anthropic
5%
Baidu
5%
Nvidia
4%
Bytedance
4%
Mistral
3%
MiniMax
2%
StepFun
1%
Xiaomi
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Tencent
1%
Amazon
1%
Meta
12%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Alibaba 30%
Google 22%
OpenAI 16%
Moonshot 11%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
Alibaba
$806 Vol.
30%
$2,351 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$334 Vol.
16%
Moonshot
$205 Vol.
11%
Z.ai
$305 Vol.
6%
Meituan
$590 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$195 Vol.
5%
Baidu
$225 Vol.
5%
Nvidia
$263 Vol.
4%
Bytedance
$273 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$284 Vol.
3%
MiniMax
$272 Vol.
2%
StepFun
$144 Vol.
1%
Xiaomi
$195 Vol.
1%
SpaceXAI
$190 Vol.
1%
Tencent
$180 Vol.
1%
Amazon
$195 Vol.
1%
Meta
$199 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$180 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$143 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Multiple AI labs remain tightly clustered near 50% implied probability for third place on TextArena math evaluations by end of October, underscoring intense competition in reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba, Google, and OpenAI lead the field at 29.5%, 21.5%, and 15.5% respectively, driven by recent releases such as Qwen3 variants, GLM-5.1, and GPT-5.6-Sol that demonstrate strong gains on math and game-based reasoning tasks like probabilistic poker environments. Chinese labs including Moonshot and Z.ai benefit from rapid iteration on large language models, while Anthropic's Claude series maintains an edge in verified benchmarks. Upcoming developer updates, new model drops, and leaderboard refreshes through September could shift trader consensus as capabilities in symbolic math and self-play training continue to converge.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$7,530Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Multiple AI labs remain tightly clustered near 50% implied probability for third place on TextArena math evaluations by end of October, underscoring intense competition in reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba, Google, and OpenAI lead the field at 29.5%, 21.5%, and 15.5% respectively, driven by recent releases such as Qwen3 variants, GLM-5.1, and GPT-5.6-Sol that demonstrate strong gains on math and game-based reasoning tasks like probabilistic poker environments. Chinese labs including Moonshot and Z.ai benefit from rapid iteration on large language models, while Anthropic's Claude series maintains an edge in verified benchmarks. Upcoming developer updates, new model drops, and leaderboard refreshes through September could shift trader consensus as capabilities in symbolic math and self-play training continue to converge.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$7,530Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Multiple AI labs remain tightly clustered near 50% implied probability for third place on TextArena math evaluations by end of October, underscoring intense competition in reasoning benchmarks. Alibaba, Google, and OpenAI lead the field at 29.5%, 21.5%, and 15.5% respectively, driven by recent releases such as Qwen3 variants, GLM-5.1, and GPT-5.6-Sol that demonstrate strong gains on math and game-based reasoning tasks like probabilistic poker environments. Chinese labs including Moonshot and Z.ai benefit from rapid iteration on large language models, while Anthropic's Claude series maintains an edge in verified benchmarks. Upcoming developer updates, new model drops, and leaderboard refreshes through September could shift trader consensus as capabilities in symbolic math and self-play training continue to converge.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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