Intense competition among frontier AI labs drives the closely matched probabilities in this market, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over which will claim the third spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control enabled) by October 31. Rapid iteration on large language models, including capability jumps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal features, keeps rankings fluid as Chinese labs like Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot challenge U.S. leaders such as Google and Meta. Recent benchmark shifts and model updates have narrowed gaps, while style control adjustments filter verbosity biases that previously favored certain outputs. Upcoming releases, developer conferences, and potential regulatory moves around AI deployment add further volatility, underscoring how skin-in-the-game odds capture evolving competitive dynamics rather than fixed hierarchies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiGoogle 22%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 14%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
22%
Meta
18%
Alibaba
14%
DeepSeek
14%
Moonshot
11%
Baidu
5%
Anthropic
5%
OpenAI
5%
Z.ai
5%
ByteDance
5%
StepFun
5%
SpaceXAI
5%
Thinky
5%
Meituan
5%
Xiaomi
12%
Microsoft
2%
MiniMax
2%
Mistral
2%
Amazon
2%
Tencent
2%
Nvidia
1%
Google 22%
Meta 18%
Alibaba 14%
DeepSeek 14%
BARU
BARU
Oct 31, 2026
$250 Vol.
22%
Meta
$257 Vol.
18%
Alibaba
$221 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$145 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$160 Vol.
11%
Baidu
$145 Vol.
5%
Anthropic
$194 Vol.
5%
OpenAI
$150 Vol.
5%
Z.ai
$150 Vol.
5%
ByteDance
$286 Vol.
5%
StepFun
$221 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$145 Vol.
5%
Thinky
$231 Vol.
5%
Meituan
$372 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$233 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$205 Vol.
2%
MiniMax
$247 Vol.
2%
Mistral
$250 Vol.
2%
Amazon
$244 Vol.
2%
Tencent
$226 Vol.
2%
Nvidia
$221 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among frontier AI labs drives the closely matched probabilities in this market, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over which will claim the third spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control enabled) by October 31. Rapid iteration on large language models, including capability jumps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal features, keeps rankings fluid as Chinese labs like Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot challenge U.S. leaders such as Google and Meta. Recent benchmark shifts and model updates have narrowed gaps, while style control adjustments filter verbosity biases that previously favored certain outputs. Upcoming releases, developer conferences, and potential regulatory moves around AI deployment add further volatility, underscoring how skin-in-the-game odds capture evolving competitive dynamics rather than fixed hierarchies.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Volume
$4,556Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Intense competition among frontier AI labs drives the closely matched probabilities in this market, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over which will claim the third spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control enabled) by October 31. Rapid iteration on large language models, including capability jumps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal features, keeps rankings fluid as Chinese labs like Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot challenge U.S. leaders such as Google and Meta. Recent benchmark shifts and model updates have narrowed gaps, while style control adjustments filter verbosity biases that previously favored certain outputs. Upcoming releases, developer conferences, and potential regulatory moves around AI deployment add further volatility, underscoring how skin-in-the-game odds capture evolving competitive dynamics rather than fixed hierarchies.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$4,556Tanggal Berakhir
Oct 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Intense competition among frontier AI labs drives the closely matched probabilities in this market, with trader consensus reflecting uncertainty over which will claim the third spot on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (style control enabled) by October 31. Rapid iteration on large language models, including capability jumps in reasoning, coding, and multimodal features, keeps rankings fluid as Chinese labs like Alibaba, DeepSeek, and Moonshot challenge U.S. leaders such as Google and Meta. Recent benchmark shifts and model updates have narrowed gaps, while style control adjustments filter verbosity biases that previously favored certain outputs. Upcoming releases, developer conferences, and potential regulatory moves around AI deployment add further volatility, underscoring how skin-in-the-game odds capture evolving competitive dynamics rather than fixed hierarchies.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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