Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max Effort currently leads LiveBench coding with an 86.4 score on the June 2026 snapshot, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants, which underpins the 82.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic. Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding and agentic tasks through improved reasoning chains and tool use. No major competing model updates from OpenAI or others have posted verifiable LiveBench coding gains in the past 60 days, keeping trader consensus stable ahead of the late-October resolution. Upcoming releases or fine-tunes could still shift the leaderboard, but current data favor Anthropic holding the top spot.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnthropic 83%
OpenAI 15.6%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$22,016 Vol.
$22,016 Vol.

Anthropic
83%

OpenAI
16%

SpaceXAI
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 83%
OpenAI 15.6%
SpaceXAI <1%
Google <1%
$22,016 Vol.
$22,016 Vol.

Anthropic
83%

OpenAI
16%

SpaceXAI
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Mistral
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Meta
<1%

Alibaba
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Amazon
<1%

ByteDance
<1%

Thinky
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max Effort currently leads LiveBench coding with an 86.4 score on the June 2026 snapshot, ahead of OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants, which underpins the 82.5% market-implied probability for Anthropic. Recent releases of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5.1 strengthened Anthropic’s edge in coding and agentic tasks through improved reasoning chains and tool use. No major competing model updates from OpenAI or others have posted verifiable LiveBench coding gains in the past 60 days, keeping trader consensus stable ahead of the late-October resolution. Upcoming releases or fine-tunes could still shift the leaderboard, but current data favor Anthropic holding the top spot.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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