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Politik·Presiden

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

icon for Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?
Politik·Presiden

Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?

Gavin Newsom 46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%

Jon Ossoff 46%

Kamala Harris 46%

Polymarket
BARU

Gavin Newsom 46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 46%

Jon Ossoff 46%

Kamala Harris 46%

Polymarket
BARU

Gavin Newsom

$0 Vol.

46%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez

$0 Vol.

46%

Jon Ossoff

$0 Vol.

46%

Kamala Harris

$0 Vol.

46%

Josh Shapiro

$0 Vol.

46%

Pete Buttigieg

$0 Vol.

46%

Jon Stewart

$0 Vol.

46%

Andy Beshear

$0 Vol.

46%

Rahm Emanuel

$0 Vol.

46%

Ro Khanna

$0 Vol.

46%

Stephen A. Smith

$0 Vol.

46%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No prominent Democrat has formally announced a 2028 presidential bid as of mid-2026, leaving "Other" with the narrowest edge in trader consensus. Kamala Harris has stated she is "thinking about" another run, while Gavin Newsom has positioned himself through policy moves and public statements amid a federal probe, yet both have stopped short of launching campaigns. Other potential contenders including Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, and Jon Ossoff have engaged in early outreach and polling without crossing into formal announcements. This shared reluctance to move first, combined with attention on the 2026 midterms and historical patterns of post-election timing, sustains the tight spread among listed options. Developments such as explicit statements, staff hires, or fundraising launches by any single figure could quickly shift probabilities.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market.

The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith.

An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market.

If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2027
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 9, 2026, 9:34 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who publicly and unambiguously announces their candidacy in the 2028 United States presidential election, whether they are seeking any party nomination in the election or otherwise. An announcement that an individual is exploring a run or has formed an exploratory committee will be insufficient to resolve this market. The listed individuals are: Gavin Newsom, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Jon Ossoff, Kamala Harris, Josh Shapiro, Pete Buttigieg, Jon Stewart, Andy Beshear, Rahm Emanuel, Ro Khanna, and Stephen A. Smith. An announcement by a listed individual will be sufficient to trigger resolution, regardless of whether they file their candidacy with the relevant regulatory authority. A campaign filing without an announcement will not be sufficient to resolve this market. If no listed individual makes such an announcement by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". Once a qualifying announcement is made, subsequent withdrawal or retraction will not affect resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individuals (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 11 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "Gavin Newsom" di 46%, diikuti oleh "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" di 46%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 46¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 9, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?," jelajahi 11 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" adalah "Gavin Newsom" di 46%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 46% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez" di 46%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Which of these Democrats will be the first to announce a run for President?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.