Tight U.S. cattle inventories at a 75-year low continue to constrain beef supplies and underpin elevated ground beef prices through 2026, with USDA forecasting a 10.1% rise in overall beef prices amid drought-driven herd contraction and high feed costs. March 2026 ground beef averaged $6.70 per pound, up nearly $1 year-over-year, as domestic cow slaughter fell to multi-decade lows and imports of lean trim rose to fill the gap, reaching an expected 18% of total supply. Strong consumer demand has sustained retail levels near $9–10 per pound for fresh beef despite affordability pressures, while futures markets price in continued volatility tied to seasonal slaughter patterns and limited herd rebuilding until at least 2028. Key near-term catalysts include May–June cattle-on-feed reports and any shifts in import volumes that could ease or exacerbate the supply squeeze.