Skip to main content
icon for Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
Geopolitik·Ukraina

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?

icon for Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?
Geopolitik·Ukraina

Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?

BARU
Jul 31, 2026
Polymarket

$0.00 Vol.

Polymarket

July 31

$0 Vol.

50%

September 30

$0 Vol.

49%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Novodmytrivka southeast of Sumy City in Sumy Oblast as part of broader efforts in northern Ukraine, with Russian Ministry of Defense claims of control dating to April 2026 and tactical gains reported nearby in subsequent months. Ukrainian forces responded with counter-advances in northern Sumy Oblast through May and June 2026, including territorial recoveries that outpaced losses in some sectors and slowed the overall Russian spring-summer offensive. Primary drivers of market positioning include sustained Ukrainian drone interdiction, Russian manpower constraints from waning voluntary recruitment, and the absence of major breakthroughs along this axis compared with Donetsk priorities. Upcoming factors that could shift implied probabilities involve any escalation in Sumy Oblast fighting, Ukrainian strikes on logistics, or shifts in Russian force allocation before winter conditions set in.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png

Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png

Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces have conducted limited offensive operations near Novodmytrivka southeast of Sumy City in Sumy Oblast as part of broader efforts in northern Ukraine, with Russian Ministry of Defense claims of control dating to April 2026 and tactical gains reported nearby in subsequent months. Ukrainian forces responded with counter-advances in northern Sumy Oblast through May and June 2026, including territorial recoveries that outpaced losses in some sectors and slowed the overall Russian spring-summer offensive. Primary drivers of market positioning include sustained Ukrainian drone interdiction, Russian manpower constraints from waning voluntary recruitment, and the absence of major breakthroughs along this axis compared with Donetsk priorities. Upcoming factors that could shift implied probabilities involve any escalation in Sumy Oblast fighting, Ukrainian strikes on logistics, or shifts in Russian force allocation before winter conditions set in.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.

The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.

If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png

Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png

Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png

Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$0
Tanggal Berakhir
Sep 30, 2026
Pasar Dibuka
Jul 14, 2026, 7:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 50.756666° N, 35.372420° E in Novodmytrivka, Sumy Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET. The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka3.png Intersection Location in Novodmytrivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka2.png Novodmytrivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Novodmytrivka1.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/aeukB8q42paroXdk9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Terkait

icon for Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?

Will Russia capture Viroliubivka by December 31?

28%
icon for Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?

23%
icon for Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?

Will Russia capture Pokrovka by December 31?

98%

Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.

Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan

"Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?" adalah pasar prediksi di Polymarket dengan 2 hasil yang mungkin di mana trader membeli dan menjual saham berdasarkan apa yang mereka yakini akan terjadi. Hasil terdepan saat ini adalah "July 31" di 50%, diikuti oleh "September 30" di 49%. Harga mencerminkan probabilitas crowd-sourced real-time. Misalnya, saham yang dihargai 50¢ menyiratkan bahwa pasar secara kolektif memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Peluang ini bergeser terus-menerus saat trader bereaksi terhadap perkembangan dan informasi baru. Saham dengan hasil yang benar bisa ditukarkan seharga $1 setiap saham saat pasar diselesaikan.

"Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?" adalah pasar yang baru dibuat di Polymarket, diluncurkan pada Jul 14, 2026. Sebagai pasar awal, ini adalah kesempatanmu untuk menjadi salah satu trader pertama yang menetapkan peluang dan membangun sinyal harga awal pasar. Kamu juga bisa menandai halaman ini untuk melacak volume dan aktivitas trading seiring pasar mendapatkan traksi.

Untuk trading di "Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?," jelajahi 2 hasil yang tersedia di halaman ini. Setiap hasil menampilkan harga saat ini yang mewakili probabilitas tersirat pasar. Untuk mengambil posisi, pilih hasil yang menurutmu paling mungkin, pilih "Ya" untuk mendukungnya atau "Tidak" untuk menentangnya, masukkan jumlahmu, dan klik "Trade." Jika hasil pilihanmu benar saat pasar diselesaikan, saham "Ya" kamu membayar $1 masing-masing. Jika salah, mereka membayar $0. Kamu juga bisa menjual sahammu kapan saja sebelum resolusi jika kamu ingin mengamankan keuntungan atau memotong kerugian.

Unggulan saat ini untuk "Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?" adalah "July 31" di 50%, yang berarti pasar memberikan peluang 50% pada hasil tersebut. Hasil terdekat berikutnya adalah "September 30" di 49%. Peluang ini diperbarui secara real-time saat trader membeli dan menjual saham, sehingga mencerminkan pandangan kolektif terbaru tentang apa yang paling mungkin terjadi. Cek kembali secara rutin atau tandai halaman ini untuk mengikuti bagaimana peluang bergeser saat informasi baru muncul.

Aturan resolusi untuk "Will Russia capture Novodmytrivka by...?" mendefinisikan dengan tepat apa yang harus terjadi agar setiap hasil dinyatakan sebagai pemenang — termasuk sumber data resmi yang digunakan untuk menentukan hasilnya. Kamu bisa meninjau kriteria resolusi lengkap di bagian "Aturan" di halaman ini di atas komentar. Kami menyarankan membaca aturan dengan cermat sebelum trading, karena mereka menentukan kondisi tepat, kasus khusus, dan sumber yang mengatur bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan.