Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit but reported zero autonomous miles in 2025, far short of the 50,000 supervised miles required for driverless deployment permits, as confirmed by state records and recent Reuters reporting. While Tesla expanded its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)-based chauffeur service in the Bay Area and ramped Cybercab production in April 2026, new DMV rules effective July 1 for ticketing autonomous vehicles underscore enforcement hurdles. Robotaxi operations thrive unsupervised in Texas, but California's stringent oversight—mirroring delays for Waymo and Cruise—leaves little room for a pre-deadline breakthrough absent sudden permit filings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui$105,492 Vol.
$105,492 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$105,492 Vol.
$105,492 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit but reported zero autonomous miles in 2025, far short of the 50,000 supervised miles required for driverless deployment permits, as confirmed by state records and recent Reuters reporting. While Tesla expanded its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)-based chauffeur service in the Bay Area and ramped Cybercab production in April 2026, new DMV rules effective July 1 for ticketing autonomous vehicles underscore enforcement hurdles. Robotaxi operations thrive unsupervised in Texas, but California's stringent oversight—mirroring delays for Waymo and Cruise—leaves little room for a pre-deadline breakthrough absent sudden permit filings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ET
Volume
$105,492Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit but reported zero autonomous miles in 2025, far short of the 50,000 supervised miles required for driverless deployment permits, as confirmed by state records and recent Reuters reporting. While Tesla expanded its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)-based chauffeur service in the Bay Area and ramped Cybercab production in April 2026, new DMV rules effective July 1 for ticketing autonomous vehicles underscore enforcement hurdles. Robotaxi operations thrive unsupervised in Texas, but California's stringent oversight—mirroring delays for Waymo and Cruise—leaves little room for a pre-deadline breakthrough absent sudden permit filings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tesla publicly launches a self-driving taxi service in California by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any taxi service available to the general public which operates without a human driver actively controlling the vehicle will count, regardless of membership or other financial restrictions.
Services which are limited to Tesla employees or a limited test group without general access will not qualify.
This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$105,492Tanggal Berakhir
Jun 30, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 12, 2025, 5:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 87.5% implied probability against Tesla launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by June 30, driven by the company's failure to secure critical regulatory approvals from the California DMV and CPUC. Tesla Robotaxi LLC holds a testing permit but reported zero autonomous miles in 2025, far short of the 50,000 supervised miles required for driverless deployment permits, as confirmed by state records and recent Reuters reporting. While Tesla expanded its supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD)-based chauffeur service in the Bay Area and ramped Cybercab production in April 2026, new DMV rules effective July 1 for ticketing autonomous vehicles underscore enforcement hurdles. Robotaxi operations thrive unsupervised in Texas, but California's stringent oversight—mirroring delays for Waymo and Cruise—leaves little room for a pre-deadline breakthrough absent sudden permit filings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan