The January 2026 U.S. special operations raid and targeted airstrikes that captured Nicolás Maduro established leverage over Venezuelan oil policy and narcotics enforcement without sustained ground occupation or broader territorial control. Diplomatic relations resumed by March, sanctions eased, and limited U.S. personnel later supported earthquake relief following June tremors. As of mid-August, U.S.-backed talks between the interim government and opposition factions continue amid bipartisan Senate calls for elections and prisoner releases, with no new congressional war authorizations or large-scale deployments reported. These developments have anchored trader-implied probabilities for a qualifying military offensive low through year-end resolution windows.