Recent October 2026 polls show the PAN maintaining a 10-19 point lead over Morena in party identification and hypothetical general election matchups for the June 2027 Aguascalientes gubernatorial race. Antonio Martín del Campo leads PAN internal preference surveys by wide margins, though recent measurements indicate a tightening contest with municipal president Leonardo Montañez Castro. Nora Ruvalcaba Gámez coordinates Morena’s process after her 2022 nomination, while PRI and Movimiento Ciudadano profiles remain marginal. With formal candidacies still pending and internal selection deadlines approaching in November, trader positioning reflects the incumbent party’s structural edge alongside uncertainty over nominee consolidation and any late shifts in voter sentiment ahead of the June ballot.