Recent developments including the November 2026 impeachment of President Santiago Peña over a banking crisis have elevated Vice President Pedro Alliana to the presidency through August 2028, providing him an incumbency platform ahead of the April-May 2028 general election. The ruling Colorado Party remains divided between Honor Colorado loyalists and dissident factions, while the opposition—led by the PLRA and movements such as Yo Creo—features multiple pre-candidates including Ricardo Estigarribia, Miguel Prieto, Arnoldo Wiens, and Basilio Núñez. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with no candidate exceeding low double-digit implied probabilities amid ongoing internal primaries, coalition talks, and the constitutional single-term limit. Upcoming municipal outcomes and party conventions could consolidate support and shift probabilities.