Anthropic’s amended S-1 filing on November 10, 2026, which set a $70–$78 price range for 825 million shares and confirmed a targeted Nasdaq listing as ANT on November 19, underpins the 93.3% implied probability for that date. The roadshow launch, $26 billion concurrent private placement with cornerstone investors including Google and Nvidia, and reports of a covered institutional order book have reinforced trader consensus around the compressed timeline. With pricing expected November 18 and retail allocations planned, the market prices in minimal slippage risk ahead of resolution. A last-minute SEC comment or sharp deterioration in broader equity sentiment could still shift the schedule, though the filing’s advanced stage and near-term catalysts limit realistic alternatives to low single-digit probabilities.