Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas’s November 2026 Senate contest, a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing over 81 percent of the GOP vote and Shoffner taking the Democratic nomination. Limited polling and strong historical Republican performance in the state underpin trader consensus around double-digit GOP margins, though probabilities remain distributed across multiple victory ranges because Arkansas’s partisan lean can produce variable turnout and modest national headwinds. Key factors that could widen or narrow the spread include late-cycle national conditions, candidate fundraising, and voter mobilization in rural versus suburban areas, while any significant scandal or shift in presidential-year dynamics remains the clearest potential separator.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoRepubblicano 5-10% 42%
Repubblicano 40%+ 39%
Repubblicano 0-5% 37%
Repubblicano 20-25% 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 40%+
39%
Repubblicano 35-40%
31%
Repubblicano 30-35%
30%
Repubblicano 25-30%
31%
Repubblicano 20-25%
36%
Repubblicano 15-20%
31%
Repubblicano 10-15%
32%
Repubblicano 5-10%
42%
Repubblicano 0-5%
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
26%
Repubblicano 5-10% 42%
Repubblicano 40%+ 39%
Repubblicano 0-5% 37%
Repubblicano 20-25% 36%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Repubblicano 40%+
$0 Vol.
39%
Repubblicano 35-40%
$0 Vol.
31%
Repubblicano 30-35%
$0 Vol.
30%
Repubblicano 25-30%
$0 Vol.
31%
Repubblicano 20-25%
$0 Vol.
36%
Repubblicano 15-20%
$0 Vol.
31%
Repubblicano 10-15%
$0 Vol.
32%
Repubblicano 5-10%
$0 Vol.
42%
Repubblicano 0-5%
$50 Vol.
37%
Vittoria del Democratico
$41 Vol.
26%
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas’s November 2026 Senate contest, a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing over 81 percent of the GOP vote and Shoffner taking the Democratic nomination. Limited polling and strong historical Republican performance in the state underpin trader consensus around double-digit GOP margins, though probabilities remain distributed across multiple victory ranges because Arkansas’s partisan lean can produce variable turnout and modest national headwinds. Key factors that could widen or narrow the spread include late-cycle national conditions, candidate fundraising, and voter mobilization in rural versus suburban areas, while any significant scandal or shift in presidential-year dynamics remains the clearest potential separator.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volume
$91Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas’s November 2026 Senate contest, a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing over 81 percent of the GOP vote and Shoffner taking the Democratic nomination. Limited polling and strong historical Republican performance in the state underpin trader consensus around double-digit GOP margins, though probabilities remain distributed across multiple victory ranges because Arkansas’s partisan lean can produce variable turnout and modest national headwinds. Key factors that could widen or narrow the spread include late-cycle national conditions, candidate fundraising, and voter mobilization in rural versus suburban areas, while any significant scandal or shift in presidential-year dynamics remains the clearest potential separator.
The 2026 Arkansas Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Arkansas Senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$91Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 4, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton faces Democrat Hallie Shoffner in Arkansas’s November 2026 Senate contest, a race rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters. Primaries concluded in March with Cotton securing over 81 percent of the GOP vote and Shoffner taking the Democratic nomination. Limited polling and strong historical Republican performance in the state underpin trader consensus around double-digit GOP margins, though probabilities remain distributed across multiple victory ranges because Arkansas’s partisan lean can produce variable turnout and modest national headwinds. Key factors that could widen or narrow the spread include late-cycle national conditions, candidate fundraising, and voter mobilization in rural versus suburban areas, while any significant scandal or shift in presidential-year dynamics remains the clearest potential separator.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per il Senato dell'Alabama del 2026?
38%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni del Senato del Tennessee del 2026 con il 45% o più?
35%
Sì
Il candidato del Partito Repubblicano vincerà le elezioni del Senato dell'Oklahoma del 2026 con il 45% o più?
39%
Sì
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