Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band as the clear consensus outcome at 52.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a sharp sequential slowdown from Q1's 1.1% expansion. High real interest rates, with the SELIC recently cut 25 basis points to 14.00% in August, continue to restrain domestic demand while the labor market remains resilient. Moderating monthly activity indicators through mid-2026, combined with inflation easing toward but still above the 4.5% target upper bound, support the view of growth converging toward potential near 0.4%. The September 1 release will provide the first confirmation, with any upside surprise in services or exports the main swing factor for adjacent bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato0,3%–0,5% 52.4%
0,0%–0,2% 22.7%
0,6%–0,8% 17.5%
0,9%–1,1% 10.1%
$45,486 Vol.
$45,486 Vol.
1 set 2026
<0,0%
1%
0,0%–0,2%
23%
0,3%–0,5%
52%
0,6%–0,8%
18%
0,9%–1,1%
10%
1,2%–1,4%
<1%
≥1,5%
<1%
0,3%–0,5% 52.4%
0,0%–0,2% 22.7%
0,6%–0,8% 17.5%
0,9%–1,1% 10.1%
$45,486 Vol.
$45,486 Vol.
1 set 2026
<0,0%
$1,094 Vol.
1%
0,0%–0,2%
$3,404 Vol.
23%
0,3%–0,5%
$16,554 Vol.
52%
0,6%–0,8%
$14,748 Vol.
18%
0,9%–1,1%
$6,075 Vol.
10%
1,2%–1,4%
$2,775 Vol.
<1%
≥1,5%
$836 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band as the clear consensus outcome at 52.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a sharp sequential slowdown from Q1's 1.1% expansion. High real interest rates, with the SELIC recently cut 25 basis points to 14.00% in August, continue to restrain domestic demand while the labor market remains resilient. Moderating monthly activity indicators through mid-2026, combined with inflation easing toward but still above the 4.5% target upper bound, support the view of growth converging toward potential near 0.4%. The September 1 release will provide the first confirmation, with any upside surprise in services or exports the main swing factor for adjacent bins.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volume
$45,486Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band as the clear consensus outcome at 52.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a sharp sequential slowdown from Q1's 1.1% expansion. High real interest rates, with the SELIC recently cut 25 basis points to 14.00% in August, continue to restrain domestic demand while the labor market remains resilient. Moderating monthly activity indicators through mid-2026, combined with inflation easing toward but still above the 4.5% target upper bound, support the view of growth converging toward potential near 0.4%. The September 1 release will provide the first confirmation, with any upside surprise in services or exports the main swing factor for adjacent bins.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 2nd quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on September 1, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$45,486Data di fine
1 set 2026Mercato aperto
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil's Q2 2026 GDP growth (QoQ) market prices the 0.3%–0.5% band as the clear consensus outcome at 52.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of a sharp sequential slowdown from Q1's 1.1% expansion. High real interest rates, with the SELIC recently cut 25 basis points to 14.00% in August, continue to restrain domestic demand while the labor market remains resilient. Moderating monthly activity indicators through mid-2026, combined with inflation easing toward but still above the 4.5% target upper bound, support the view of growth converging toward potential near 0.4%. The September 1 release will provide the first confirmation, with any upside surprise in services or exports the main swing factor for adjacent bins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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