Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 3rd congressional district seat in November. Redistricting shifted the district toward a more Democratic lean by incorporating additional Sacramento County voters while retaining rural northern counties, creating a voter composition that supports Bera's incumbency and fundraising edge yet leaves room for Tucker to compete on local issues. Trader consensus on victory margins clusters around narrow Democratic leads, reflecting the absence of major recent catalysts such as scandals, national shifts, or high-profile campaign events that could widen the gap before Election Day. Historical patterns in similar post-redistricting races and the district's mixed partisan registration underscore why probabilities for various margins remain closely balanced without decisive separation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCA-03 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
CA-03 Margine di vittoria per le elezioni della Camera
Democratico 15-20% 43%
Democratico 10-15% 43%
Democratico 30%+ 43%
Democratico 20-25% 43%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratico 30%+
43%
Democratico 25-30%
41%
Democratico 20-25%
43%
Democratico 15-20%
43%
Democratico 10-15%
43%
Democratico 5-10%
41%
Democratico 0-5%
42%
Vittoria Repubblicana
41%
Democratico 15-20% 43%
Democratico 10-15% 43%
Democratico 30%+ 43%
Democratico 20-25% 43%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 nov 2026
Democratico 30%+
$0 Vol.
43%
Democratico 25-30%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democratico 20-25%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democratico 15-20%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democratico 10-15%
$0 Vol.
43%
Democratico 5-10%
$0 Vol.
41%
Democratico 0-5%
$0 Vol.
42%
Vittoria Repubblicana
$0 Vol.
41%
The 2026 CA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 3rd congressional district seat in November. Redistricting shifted the district toward a more Democratic lean by incorporating additional Sacramento County voters while retaining rural northern counties, creating a voter composition that supports Bera's incumbency and fundraising edge yet leaves room for Tucker to compete on local issues. Trader consensus on victory margins clusters around narrow Democratic leads, reflecting the absence of major recent catalysts such as scandals, national shifts, or high-profile campaign events that could widen the gap before Election Day. Historical patterns in similar post-redistricting races and the district's mixed partisan registration underscore why probabilities for various margins remain closely balanced without decisive separation.
The 2026 CA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 3rd congressional district seat in November. Redistricting shifted the district toward a more Democratic lean by incorporating additional Sacramento County voters while retaining rural northern counties, creating a voter composition that supports Bera's incumbency and fundraising edge yet leaves room for Tucker to compete on local issues. Trader consensus on victory margins clusters around narrow Democratic leads, reflecting the absence of major recent catalysts such as scandals, national shifts, or high-profile campaign events that could widen the gap before Election Day. Historical patterns in similar post-redistricting races and the district's mixed partisan registration underscore why probabilities for various margins remain closely balanced without decisive separation.
The 2026 CA-03 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-03 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 3:30 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Democrat Ami Bera and Republican Robb Tucker advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary to contest California's 3rd congressional district seat in November. Redistricting shifted the district toward a more Democratic lean by incorporating additional Sacramento County voters while retaining rural northern counties, creating a voter composition that supports Bera's incumbency and fundraising edge yet leaves room for Tucker to compete on local issues. Trader consensus on victory margins clusters around narrow Democratic leads, reflecting the absence of major recent catalysts such as scandals, national shifts, or high-profile campaign events that could widen the gap before Election Day. Historical patterns in similar post-redistricting races and the district's mixed partisan registration underscore why probabilities for various margins remain closely balanced without decisive separation.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni della Camera 2026 per il distretto CA-06 con un margine tra il 10% e il 15%?
44%
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Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del distretto CA-02 del 2026 con il 45% o più?
43%
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Un candidato del Partito Democratico vincerà le elezioni per la Camera del 2026 nel distretto CA-01 con un margine tra il 10% e il 15%?
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