**Recent polling trends show a tightening race between incumbent governor Elmano de Freitas (PT) and former governor Ciro Gomes (PSDB) ahead of the October 4 first-round vote.** Multiple September surveys, including Datafolha, Quaest, Real Time Big Data, and AtlasIntel, place the two in a technical tie or within a few points, with results often inside margins of error of 2–3 points. Elmano has narrowed or reversed earlier deficits through gains in stimulated voting scenarios, while Ciro’s support has softened slightly in some series. The contest features high name recognition for both candidates and limited support for minor contenders such as Eduardo Girão, Capitão Wagner, Roberto Cláudio, or Camilo Santana. Campaign activity has included debates marked by sharp exchanges, with Elmano criticizing Ciro’s alliances and Ciro highlighting differences in governance records. Trader pricing, which assigns Elmano a higher implied probability than Ciro, appears to reflect the incumbent’s recent polling momentum, structural advantages of office, and the potential for the race to resolve in the first round. Upcoming final polls and voter turnout patterns in the state’s key regions remain the primary variables that could shift assessments before election day.