Ongoing maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals in July 2026, have sustained tensions without crossing into direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels, including ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations showing reported progress toward a potential 2026 conclusion, combined with Philippine alliances involving U.S. and Japanese joint drills, appear to reinforce deterrence and crisis management. Traders price the "No" outcome at 66.5% as these grey-zone frictions, official protests, and multilateral signaling continue to contain escalation risks through the end of 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
34% probabilità
$94,317 Vol.
$94,317 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
34% probabilità
$94,317 Vol.
$94,317 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals in July 2026, have sustained tensions without crossing into direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels, including ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations showing reported progress toward a potential 2026 conclusion, combined with Philippine alliances involving U.S. and Japanese joint drills, appear to reinforce deterrence and crisis management. Traders price the "No" outcome at 66.5% as these grey-zone frictions, official protests, and multilateral signaling continue to contain escalation risks through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
Volume
$94,317Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals in July 2026, have sustained tensions without crossing into direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels, including ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations showing reported progress toward a potential 2026 conclusion, combined with Philippine alliances involving U.S. and Japanese joint drills, appear to reinforce deterrence and crisis management. Traders price the "No" outcome at 66.5% as these grey-zone frictions, official protests, and multilateral signaling continue to contain escalation risks through the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$94,317Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing maritime confrontations in the South China Sea, including water cannon incidents and vessel maneuvers near Scarborough and Second Thomas Shoals in July 2026, have sustained tensions without crossing into direct military engagement. Diplomatic channels, including ASEAN-led Code of Conduct negotiations showing reported progress toward a potential 2026 conclusion, combined with Philippine alliances involving U.S. and Japanese joint drills, appear to reinforce deterrence and crisis management. Traders price the "No" outcome at 66.5% as these grey-zone frictions, official protests, and multilateral signaling continue to contain escalation risks through the end of 2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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