Trump's Truth Social activity has averaged 20-22 posts daily in recent weeks, with spikes to 25-39 on active days amid 2026 midterm campaigning, candidate endorsements, policy announcements on energy and clocks, and travel for remarks. This pace, sustained since his 2025 inauguration, positions the 140-199 range as a baseline expectation for the eight-day window, while the 29.5% probability on 200+ reflects trader views of potential escalation from news cycles or events. Lower bins account for schedule variability or slower periods. Key differentiators include proximity to midterm voting, onshoring announcements, and foreign policy references, which historically correlate with higher volume; consolidation around one bracket would likely follow sustained high-output days or a quiet stretch confirmed in the resolution period.