The open-seat contest in Florida’s 11th congressional district, redrawn after the 2026 map cycle and previously held by retiring Republican Daniel Webster, has produced a narrow Republican advantage in early vote tabulation. Joe Strada’s narrow primary victory and subsequent general-election lead of roughly six to nine points reflect the district’s underlying R+7 to R+15 partisan lean, strong Republican performance in Lake and Sumter counties, and a Democratic edge in Orange County that has prevented a wider margin. James Pericola’s nomination and modest polling support kept the race within striking distance through Election Day, consistent with the market’s heavy weighting on a 6-9 percent Republican win. Late-counted mail and provisional ballots, turnout differentials among suburban voters, and any shifts in the remaining precincts could still narrow or widen the final spread before certification.