US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb as part of broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island’s disputed status. Iran has administered Greater Tunb since its 1971 seizure, alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, while the UAE maintains its sovereignty claim and has sought diplomatic or legal resolution. The islands’ military infrastructure supports Iranian coastal defenses and shipping interdiction capabilities. No change in on-ground control has occurred despite the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential follow-on operations. Ongoing regional hostilities, any further targeted actions, or diplomatic developments within the resolution window remain the primary variables influencing trader assessments of control transfer.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Grande Isola di Tunb non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
La Grande Isola di Tunb non è più sotto il controllo iraniano da...?
$50,409 Vol.
31 ago 2026
31 agosto
1%
$50,409 Vol.
31 agosto
$27,900 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb as part of broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island’s disputed status. Iran has administered Greater Tunb since its 1971 seizure, alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, while the UAE maintains its sovereignty claim and has sought diplomatic or legal resolution. The islands’ military infrastructure supports Iranian coastal defenses and shipping interdiction capabilities. No change in on-ground control has occurred despite the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential follow-on operations. Ongoing regional hostilities, any further targeted actions, or diplomatic developments within the resolution window remain the primary variables influencing trader assessments of control transfer.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ET
Volume
$50,409Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb as part of broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island’s disputed status. Iran has administered Greater Tunb since its 1971 seizure, alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, while the UAE maintains its sovereignty claim and has sought diplomatic or legal resolution. The islands’ military infrastructure supports Iranian coastal defenses and shipping interdiction capabilities. No change in on-ground control has occurred despite the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential follow-on operations. Ongoing regional hostilities, any further targeted actions, or diplomatic developments within the resolution window remain the primary variables influencing trader assessments of control transfer.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greater Tunb Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Greater Tunb Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Greater Tunb Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$50,409Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 20, 2026, 9:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military strikes in mid-July 2026 targeted Iranian cruise missile storage and launch sites on Greater Tunb as part of broader escalation over the Strait of Hormuz, renewing focus on the island’s disputed status. Iran has administered Greater Tunb since its 1971 seizure, alongside Abu Musa and Lesser Tunb, while the UAE maintains its sovereignty claim and has sought diplomatic or legal resolution. The islands’ military infrastructure supports Iranian coastal defenses and shipping interdiction capabilities. No change in on-ground control has occurred despite the strikes, though analysts have discussed potential follow-on operations. Ongoing regional hostilities, any further targeted actions, or diplomatic developments within the resolution window remain the primary variables influencing trader assessments of control transfer.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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