Recent official forecasts from the Chengdu Meteorological Station project a daily high near 34–35°C on August 25 amid scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover, with model guidance showing modest warming potential if skies clear briefly during peak insolation hours. Persistent moisture, light winds, and convective activity—typical of late-summer Sichuan Basin conditions—reduce surface heating by limiting direct solar radiation and enhancing evaporative cooling, creating a narrow range around the 35–37°C outcomes that dominate trader positioning. Minor differences among leading probabilities hinge on the exact timing and intensity of any afternoon convection, which can suppress or briefly allow higher readings at the official monitoring site before resolution. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 48 hours will refine these variables.