Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF point to a stable high-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula driving Madrid’s August 3 high into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with ensemble runs clustering near 33°C as the most probable peak. This reflects typical early-August climatology, moderated by light northerly flows that limit Saharan advection and keep urban heat-island amplification in check. Recent model updates show little day-to-day shift, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (23.5%) while trimming odds for 35°C-plus outcomes. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour model cycles for any late intensification signals before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Madrid il 3 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Madrid il 3 agosto?
33°C 48%
34°C 24%
32°C 20%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
2%
31°C
3%
32°C
20%
33°C
48%
34°C
24%
35°C
6%
36°C
3%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
33°C 48%
34°C 24%
32°C 20%
35°C 6%
NUOVO
NUOVO
3 ago 2026
29°C or below
$70 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$25 Vol.
2%
31°C
$469 Vol.
3%
32°C
$836 Vol.
20%
33°C
$457 Vol.
48%
34°C
$379 Vol.
24%
35°C
$307 Vol.
6%
36°C
$216 Vol.
3%
37°C
$27 Vol.
1%
38°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$151 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF point to a stable high-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula driving Madrid’s August 3 high into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with ensemble runs clustering near 33°C as the most probable peak. This reflects typical early-August climatology, moderated by light northerly flows that limit Saharan advection and keep urban heat-island amplification in check. Recent model updates show little day-to-day shift, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (23.5%) while trimming odds for 35°C-plus outcomes. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour model cycles for any late intensification signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,074Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF point to a stable high-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula driving Madrid’s August 3 high into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with ensemble runs clustering near 33°C as the most probable peak. This reflects typical early-August climatology, moderated by light northerly flows that limit Saharan advection and keep urban heat-island amplification in check. Recent model updates show little day-to-day shift, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (23.5%) while trimming odds for 35°C-plus outcomes. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour model cycles for any late intensification signals before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,074Data di fine
3 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies like AEMET and ECMWF point to a stable high-pressure system over the Iberian Peninsula driving Madrid’s August 3 high into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with ensemble runs clustering near 33°C as the most probable peak. This reflects typical early-August climatology, moderated by light northerly flows that limit Saharan advection and keep urban heat-island amplification in check. Recent model updates show little day-to-day shift, supporting the market’s heavy weighting toward 33°C (47.5%) and 34°C (23.5%) while trimming odds for 35°C-plus outcomes. Traders are also watching the next 48-hour model cycles for any late intensification signals before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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