Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHighest temperature in Madrid on July 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 9?
39°C 51%
38°C 24%
40°C 21%
37°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 lug 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
5%
38°C
24%
39°C
51%
40°C
21%
41°C
3%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 51%
38°C 24%
40°C 21%
37°C 5%
NUOVO
NUOVO
9 lug 2026
35°C or below
$47 Vol.
1%
36°C
$88 Vol.
1%
37°C
$20 Vol.
5%
38°C
$552 Vol.
24%
39°C
$385 Vol.
51%
40°C
$104 Vol.
21%
41°C
$22 Vol.
3%
42°C
$7 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
44°C
$27 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$263 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$1,528Data di fine
9 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,528Data di fine
9 lug 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecasts from numerical weather models place Madrid's July 9 maximum near 38–39 °C, driven by a strong subtropical ridge promoting clear skies, strong insolation, and light winds that limit mixing. Historical July averages hover around 32–34 °C, but recent days have already reached 37–39 °C amid the same synoptic pattern, pushing the distribution of possible peaks toward the upper end of climatology. Minor model spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak heating accounts for the tight contest between 38 °C and 39 °C outcomes, while probabilities drop sharply above 40 °C absent an unexpected intensification of the ridge. Updated runs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and local AEMET guidance will refine these thresholds as the date approaches.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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