Recent forecasts show a cooling trend in Munich following mid-August highs above 30°C, driven by a shift to westerly flow and increased cloud cover ahead of August 18. Passing showers or light rain are expected to limit afternoon solar heating and peak temperatures, with official guidance from sources like the BBC and timeanddate pointing to maxima around 22–25°C. This uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, combined with variable wind and humidity, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 21–23°C rather than higher values. Model spreads on cloud cover and shower development create the narrow distribution, as even modest changes in insolation or evaporative cooling can shift the daily high by 1–2°C under typical late-summer conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Monaco di Baviera il 18 agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Monaco di Baviera il 18 agosto?
22°C 32%
21°C 25%
23°C 17%
20°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
6%
20°C
11%
21°C
25%
22°C
32%
23°C
17%
24°C
4%
25°C or higher
2%
22°C 32%
21°C 25%
23°C 17%
20°C 11%
NUOVO
NUOVO
18 ago 2026
15°C or below
$304 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$121 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$28 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$13 Vol.
1%
19°C
$9 Vol.
6%
20°C
$56 Vol.
11%
21°C
$71 Vol.
25%
22°C
$28 Vol.
32%
23°C
$149 Vol.
17%
24°C
$354 Vol.
4%
25°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts show a cooling trend in Munich following mid-August highs above 30°C, driven by a shift to westerly flow and increased cloud cover ahead of August 18. Passing showers or light rain are expected to limit afternoon solar heating and peak temperatures, with official guidance from sources like the BBC and timeanddate pointing to maxima around 22–25°C. This uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, combined with variable wind and humidity, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 21–23°C rather than higher values. Model spreads on cloud cover and shower development create the narrow distribution, as even modest changes in insolation or evaporative cooling can shift the daily high by 1–2°C under typical late-summer conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,138Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts show a cooling trend in Munich following mid-August highs above 30°C, driven by a shift to westerly flow and increased cloud cover ahead of August 18. Passing showers or light rain are expected to limit afternoon solar heating and peak temperatures, with official guidance from sources like the BBC and timeanddate pointing to maxima around 22–25°C. This uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, combined with variable wind and humidity, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 21–23°C rather than higher values. Model spreads on cloud cover and shower development create the narrow distribution, as even modest changes in insolation or evaporative cooling can shift the daily high by 1–2°C under typical late-summer conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,138Data di fine
18 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts show a cooling trend in Munich following mid-August highs above 30°C, driven by a shift to westerly flow and increased cloud cover ahead of August 18. Passing showers or light rain are expected to limit afternoon solar heating and peak temperatures, with official guidance from sources like the BBC and timeanddate pointing to maxima around 22–25°C. This uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of precipitation, combined with variable wind and humidity, explains why trader-implied probabilities cluster tightly around 21–23°C rather than higher values. Model spreads on cloud cover and shower development create the narrow distribution, as even modest changes in insolation or evaporative cooling can shift the daily high by 1–2°C under typical late-summer conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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