Iran maintains de facto control over Hormuz Island and surrounding areas in the Strait of Hormuz through military checkpoints, vessel routing requirements, and targeted strikes on noncompliant shipping, as part of broader efforts to assert authority during the 2026 crisis. A U.S.-Iran ceasefire and June memorandum of understanding briefly eased tensions, but renewed Iranian attacks on vessels in July prompted U.S. strikes on Iranian command sites, missile capabilities, and coastal infrastructure, followed by reimposition of a naval blockade. These dynamics, alongside Iran's stated intent to formalize transit controls and collect fees, sustain trader focus on the low near-term likelihood of any shift in island sovereignty. Potential catalysts include further diplomatic talks on Strait administration or escalation involving U.S. or regional forces.