As of early September 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows exactly 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, encompassing 15 retirements from public office, seven candidates for U.S. Senate seats, and primary defeats. This total aligns with the market's 20–23 range after a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside redistricting effects and primary challenges in several states. With most state filing deadlines passed and the bulk of primaries concluded, the count has stabilized, reflecting trader consensus on limited remaining movement. Late primary outcomes in a few states or unforeseen vacancies could still shift the final tally by one or two before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato20–23 100.0%
<20 <1%
24–27 <1%
28–31 <1%
$64,783 Vol.
$64,783 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
No
20–23
Sì
24–27
No
28–31
No
32–35
No
36–39
No
40 o più
No
20–23 100.0%
<20 <1%
24–27 <1%
28–31 <1%
$64,783 Vol.
$64,783 Vol.
30 ago 2026
<20
$20,459 Vol.
No
20–23
$14,206 Vol.
Sì
24–27
$11,355 Vol.
No
28–31
$2,591 Vol.
No
32–35
$7,307 Vol.
No
36–39
$4,626 Vol.
No
40 o più
$4,239 Vol.
No
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early September 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows exactly 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, encompassing 15 retirements from public office, seven candidates for U.S. Senate seats, and primary defeats. This total aligns with the market's 20–23 range after a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside redistricting effects and primary challenges in several states. With most state filing deadlines passed and the bulk of primaries concluded, the count has stabilized, reflecting trader consensus on limited remaining movement. Late primary outcomes in a few states or unforeseen vacancies could still shift the final tally by one or two before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$64,783Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early September 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows exactly 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, encompassing 15 retirements from public office, seven candidates for U.S. Senate seats, and primary defeats. This total aligns with the market's 20–23 range after a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside redistricting effects and primary challenges in several states. With most state filing deadlines passed and the bulk of primaries concluded, the count has stabilized, reflecting trader consensus on limited remaining movement. Late primary outcomes in a few states or unforeseen vacancies could still shift the final tally by one or two before November.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$64,783Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
As of early September 2026, Ballotpedia tracking shows exactly 23 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election, encompassing 15 retirements from public office, seven candidates for U.S. Senate seats, and primary defeats. This total aligns with the market's 20–23 range after a wave of announcements from senior members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, alongside redistricting effects and primary challenges in several states. With most state filing deadlines passed and the bulk of primaries concluded, the count has stabilized, reflecting trader consensus on limited remaining movement. Late primary outcomes in a few states or unforeseen vacancies could still shift the final tally by one or two before November.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Will Democratic House incumbents not win in between ten and twelve nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
96%
I deputati repubblicani uscenti non vinceranno tra quattro e sei elezioni di nomina nel ciclo del 2026?
97%
Sì
Will there be between 115m and 120m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?
28%
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