Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean following mid-decade redistricting, with forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent historical margins and a simulated Trump performance near 24 points. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais won the August 6 primary with 66% against multiple challengers, preserving his established name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick emerged from her primary but confronts structural barriers in a district without competitive polling or recent shifts in voter sentiment. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican reflects these partisan baselines and the absence of major catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a broader national wave remain the primary low-probability factors that could alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTN-04 House Election Winner
TN-04 House Election Winner
$38,365 Vol.
$38,365 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
8%
$38,365 Vol.
$38,365 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Republican Party
$19,734 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$18,631 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean following mid-decade redistricting, with forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent historical margins and a simulated Trump performance near 24 points. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais won the August 6 primary with 66% against multiple challengers, preserving his established name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick emerged from her primary but confronts structural barriers in a district without competitive polling or recent shifts in voter sentiment. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican reflects these partisan baselines and the absence of major catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a broader national wave remain the primary low-probability factors that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$38,365Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean following mid-decade redistricting, with forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent historical margins and a simulated Trump performance near 24 points. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais won the August 6 primary with 66% against multiple challengers, preserving his established name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick emerged from her primary but confronts structural barriers in a district without competitive polling or recent shifts in voter sentiment. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican reflects these partisan baselines and the absence of major catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a broader national wave remain the primary low-probability factors that could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$38,365Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean following mid-decade redistricting, with forecasters rating it Solid or Safe Republican based on consistent historical margins and a simulated Trump performance near 24 points. Incumbent Scott DesJarlais won the August 6 primary with 66% against multiple challengers, preserving his established name recognition ahead of the November 3 general election. Democratic nominee Victoria Broderick emerged from her primary but confronts structural barriers in a district without competitive polling or recent shifts in voter sentiment. Trader consensus at 92.5% Republican reflects these partisan baselines and the absence of major catalysts. Late-breaking scandals, unusually high Democratic turnout, or a broader national wave remain the primary low-probability factors that could alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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